Trump-aligned candidate low-turnout São Paulo rally

Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party’s candidate for Brazil’s presidency, held a Sept. 7 campaign rally on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo, turning the Independence Day holiday into a test of his street mobilization in the country’s biggest electoral state. Brazilian news outlets and social media users posted images and video from the avenue through the day, with some backers highlighting the event’s symbolism and critics pointing to visible open spaces in the crowd. G1 reported that a crowd count by Monitor do Debate Político and More in Common put peak attendance at 28,500 people. São Paulo has been central to the 2026 race. Valor International reported on Aug. 31 that the state accounts for 22% of Brazil’s electorate and had hosted nearly half of the leading presidential candidates’ campaign engagements in the opening stretch of the race. The same report said Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party and Flávio Bolsonaro were the two leading figures in recent polls, with Lula ahead by 7 percentage points in the latest Quaest and Datafolha surveys cited by Valor. (g1.globo.com) ### Why was this rally on Avenida Paulista? Avenida Paulista has been a recurring stage for Brazil’s political right, and Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign had announced the Sept. 7 event in advance as a major public demonstration. Metrópoles reported on Aug. 25 that Bolsonaro called supporters to Paulista for a 3 p.m. rally on Independence Day, and said the campaign was using symbols associated with former President Jair Bolsonaro while treating the avenue as a key site for street mobilization. (valorinternational.globo.com) Exame reported on Sept. 7 that Flávio Bolsonaro scheduled the São Paulo event while Lula was expected at the traditional civic-military Independence Day ceremony in Brasília. That split gave both campaigns a high-visibility holiday setting less than a month before the first round. ### Who appeared with Flávio Bolsonaro? O Globo reported that São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas attended and spoke at the rally, and that candidates for governor in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Paraná were also present. (metropoles.com) O Globo separately reported that the event included attacks on Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and praise for Justice André Mendonça. (exame.com) Poder360 reported that Flávio Bolsonaro’s speech focused on criticism of President Lula and Moraes. G1 said allies at the event included Tarcísio de Freitas and PL party president Valdemar Costa Neto. ### What is verified about turnout, and what came from X posts? G1 reported two Sept. 7 crowd estimates based on the same monitoring effort, saying the event peaked at 28,500 people on Paulista. (oglobo.globo.com) The outlet also said that figure was below prior years, which had reached as high as 45,400 participants. Posts on X then became part of the story around the rally. (poder360.com.br) The social briefing tied to this item identified a post by @ToniHenriques that mocked the event’s turnout, and the user-supplied context said the post included video from São Paulo on Sept. 6, 2026, though multiple Brazilian outlets place the rally itself on Sept. 7, 2026, the Independence Day holiday. Because the X post was not directly retrievable in the web tool, the existence of online criticism is supported here by the briefing and by contemporaneous press reports documenting the event date and location. (g1.globo.com) ### Why does crowd size matter in this campaign? Valor International reported that São Paulo has been the preferred destination for the leading presidential campaigns and that candidates have concentrated heavily in the Southeast to reach undecided voters in the country’s largest electoral districts. SpaceMoney, previewing the event last week, described the Sept. 7 rally as a test of Flávio Bolsonaro’s capacity to draw supporters in public. (g1.globo.com) The next major milestone is Oct. 4, when Brazil is scheduled to hold the first round of its presidential election, according to AS/COA’s 2026 election guide, with campaigning by Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula expected to remain concentrated in large states including São Paulo. (as-coa.org) (valorinternational.globo.com)