Trade routes shift: China‑to‑US goods rerouted via Mexico
- Journal of Commerce reported Friday that Altana found China-to-U.S. trade in 2025 increasingly shifted into multi-leg routes through Mexico, letting some goods claim United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement treatment instead of China tariffs. - Altana estimated about $300 billion in tariffed goods now reach the United States annually via Mexico and Southeast Asia, with suspect transactions up 76% in the first 10 months of 2025. - The findings land ahead of the 2026 USMCA review, when Washington, Mexico City and Ottawa are expected to scrutinize rules-of-origin enforcement and transshipment risks. (brookings.edu)
Some China-to-U.S. trade didn’t disappear in 2025. Altana says part of it was rerouted through Mexico so goods could enter under United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement preferences instead of China tariff lines. (joc.com) The Journal of Commerce reported on April 24 that Altana’s research found declining direct China-U.S. flows “morphed” into multi-leg supply chains routed through Mexico. The same report said the value of China-origin trade entering the U.S. via USMCA rose significantly month to month in 2025. (joc.com) Bloomberg, citing Altana, reported that about $300 billion of goods subject to Trump-era tariffs are reaching the U.S. each year from Mexico and Southeast Asia without paying those levies. SupplyChainBrain said House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith tied the finding to gaps in current trade policy. (bloomberg.com) (supplychainbrain.com) USMCA does not waive tariffs for anything that merely passes through Mexico. U.S. Customs and Border Protection says goods must satisfy the agreement’s rules of origin to receive preferential treatment, and CBP can verify those claims. (cbp.gov) That distinction is now expensive. CBP said in March 2025 that imports from Mexico and Canada that do not satisfy USMCA rules of origin face an additional 25% duty, while China and Hong Kong goods were subject to an additional 20% duty under the administration’s orders at that point. (cscb.ca) Mexico’s role in U.S. trade has grown sharply even as direct U.S.-China trade has fallen. The Dallas Federal Reserve said Mexico accounted for 15.5% of U.S. goods imports in 2024, while China’s share of U.S. imports fell from 21.6% in 2017 to 13.4% in 2024. (dallasfed.org) The same Dallas Fed report said China supplied 21% of Mexico’s imports in 2024, leaving Mexico with an almost $120 billion trade deficit with China. It also said Mexico was on track to surpass China as the biggest source of advanced-technology imports to the U.S. in 2025. (dallasfed.org) Brookings reached a similar conclusion in September 2025. Its researchers found evidence that Chinese products were entering the U.S. mainly via Mexico through transshipment, supply-chain integration and investment, though they said the scale shrank after adjusting for price increases. (brookings.edu) The timing matters because the three USMCA countries are heading into the pact’s 2026 joint review. Brookings said North American trade topped $1.7 trillion and supported about 17 million jobs, raising the stakes for any tighter origin checks or new anti-circumvention rules. (brookings.edu) The dispute is no longer just about whether factories moved. It is about whether customs officials can tell the difference between real North American production and a longer route with new paperwork. (joc.com) (cbp.gov)
