S&P technical sell‑signal
Market commentators flagged the S&P 500’s rejection at its 10‑day moving average, calling it short‑term bearish and a sign of weak buying conviction (youtube.com). That technical caution is layering on top of macro headlines — the Fed held rates steady amid geopolitical risk and CPI was reported at 2.4% — keeping traders defensive ( ).
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the federal funds rate in a 3.50%–3.75% target range at its March 18 meeting (11–1 vote). (federalreserve.gov) Policymakers’ updated projections still show only a single quarter-point rate cut penciled in for 2026, and the post‑meeting statement flagged uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East. (virginiabusiness.com) February’s Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year‑over‑year, matching expectations, while the Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 0.7% month‑over‑month in February — the largest monthly gain in seven months. (bls.gov) U.S. stocks reacted: the S&P 500 closed around 6,624.70 on March 18, putting it noticeably below a 10‑day moving average that traders have been watching near the mid‑6,700s. (cnbc.com) Volatility has climbed: the Cboe VIX finished above 25 on March 11 (25.74) and has stayed elevated through mid‑March, with March readings averaging in the mid‑20s. (financialcontent.com) Market internals show a classic defensive tilt — energy and utilities have outperformed while technology has lagged, as Brent crude has moved back above $100 a barrel amid the Iran‑linked disruptions. (morningstar.com) Fixed‑income moves reinforced the risk‑off tone: Treasury yields ticked higher after Chair Powell’s comments, with front‑end yields rising by roughly six basis points on the day. (chathamfinancial.com)
