Tariff fight stays unsettled
U.S. tariff policy remains in flux after recent court rulings, with businesses still lobbying and Treasury hints that higher rates could be restored by July — while a bipartisan group of senators urged preserving and expanding USMCA. Companies and advisers are increasingly using AI for tariff scenario planning, and legal advisers expect disputes and pass‑through litigation over refunds to follow. (usatoday.com) (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (www.semafor.com) (businessinsider.com) (mondaq.com)
The fight over United States tariffs is still open, even after the Supreme Court struck down a major set of Trump-era duties on February 20. (usatoday.com) The court said the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not give the president authority to impose those broad import taxes, in a case called *Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump*. Customs and Border Protection stopped collecting the International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs on February 24. (mondaq.com) (usatoday.com) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said April 15 that higher tariff rates could come back by July, and Trump announced a new 10% universal tariff after the ruling. That left importers facing one set of duties invalidated and another possible round still being built. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (usatoday.com) Tariffs are taxes paid at the border by importers, not foreign governments. In the United States, Congress controls tariffs but has delegated some trade powers to presidents, which is why the legal basis for each tariff matters as much as the rate itself. (crsreports.congress.gov) That legal question now sits next to a business question worth billions of dollars: who gets the money back. Mondaq said Customs collected about $175 billion under the emergency-powers tariffs from roughly 330,000 importers across more than 53 million entries. (mondaq.com) Lawyers say the next wave is pass-through litigation, meaning fights over whether importers that raised prices to cover tariffs must share later refunds with retailers or consumers. Mondaq said class actions were filed against FedEx and United Parcel Service on February 20, the day of the Supreme Court decision. (mondaq.com 1) (mondaq.com 2) At the same time, companies are using artificial intelligence to sort customs records, estimate overpayments, and test new sourcing plans. Business Insider reported that EQI, KPMG, and Gaia Dynamics are using generative artificial intelligence tools to speed tariff compliance work and refund analysis. (businessinsider.com) North American trade is on a separate track. The Office of the United States Trade Representative has set July 1, 2026 for the first six-year joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and U.S. and Mexican officials opened bilateral review talks on March 5. (ustr.gov 1) (ustr.gov 2) Semafor reported on April 15 that more than three dozen senators from both parties urged the administration to preserve and expand the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement instead of letting tariff uncertainty spread through North American supply chains. Canada and Mexico have also publicly defended the pact as Washington weighs changes. (semafor.com 1) (semafor.com 2) So the tariff story has split into three clocks: court-ordered refunds from the February ruling, possible new rates by July, and a July 1 review of the continent’s main trade pact. For importers, retailers, and consumers, none of those clocks has run out yet. (mondaq.com) (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (ustr.gov)
