China: stocks vs. exports
Some market-watchers say China’s rebound is real and could lift stocks about 10% by year-end, with Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital calling it a turning point for Chinese equities. At the same time, export momentum cooled in March—a Reuters poll links the slowdown to higher energy costs from the Iran war undercutting an AI-led export boom, and Moneycontrol reports export growth eased to 2.5% in March ( ).
China’s markets are telling two different stories: some investors see a rebound in stocks, while March trade data showed exports losing steam. (bloomberg.com) Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital said Chinese equities could rise about 10% by the end of 2026, arguing Beijing’s support measures and still-cheap valuations mark a turn in sentiment. Bloomberg reported his call on April 14. (bloomberg.com) Trade figures released by China’s General Administration of Customs showed exports rose 2.5% in March from a year earlier, down from 21.8% growth in January and February combined. Imports climbed 27.8%, leaving a March trade surplus of about $51.1 billion. (english.customs.gov.cn) Reuters had polled analysts before the release and found a median forecast for 8.6% export growth in March. CNBC reported the actual 2.5% result missed that estimate as higher energy costs and the Iran war disrupted the earlier technology-led export surge. (reuters.com, cnbc.com) The split matters because Chinese shares and Chinese exports do not move on the same clock. Stocks can rise on expectations for policy support and earnings later this year, while customs data records what factories and overseas buyers actually did last month. (bloomberg.com, english.customs.gov.cn) China entered 2026 with unusually strong shipments tied to artificial intelligence hardware demand, including semiconductors and server-related supply chains. Reuters said the Iran war then pushed up fuel and transport costs, cutting into buyers’ purchasing power and clouding that export run. (reuters.com, whtc.com) Moneycontrol said the March slowdown showed how higher oil prices changed China’s trade math by lifting import bills and narrowing the surplus. The official customs tables put March exports at $321.0 billion and imports at $269.9 billion. (moneycontrol.com, english.customs.gov.cn) Other outlets highlighted a second drag on exports: sales to the United States fell sharply in March as tariffs bit. RTÉ, citing the customs release, said exports to the United States dropped 26.5% from a year earlier to $29.4 billion. (rte.ie) That leaves investors weighing a cleaner domestic story against a messier external one. If Beijing’s stimulus and earnings outlook improve faster than export demand weakens, Jen’s stock-market call could hold; if trade keeps cooling, the customs data will stay harder to ignore. (bloomberg.com, english.customs.gov.cn)
