Widening fiscal stress in higher ed

A new projection says 442 private nonprofit colleges could close or merge within 10 years, putting about 670,000 students on shaky ground. (hechingerreport.org) The estimate covers America’s roughly 1,700 private nonprofit four-year colleges and comes from researchers using federal data to model which campuses are most vulnerable to financial distress. The Hechinger Report said the tally had not been previously reported. (hechingerreport.org) (philadelphiafed.org) The warning is already showing up in campus decisions. Syracuse University is offering a voluntary retirement incentive to eligible faculty, and its academic affairs office said the program is meant to support “long-term financial sustainability” and align staffing with enrollment trends. (chronicle.com) (syracuse.edu) Other colleges are making cuts in plain view. The Chronicle reported that the University of North Texas is closing or consolidating more than 70 academic programs to address a $45 million budget deficit, while Keene State College in New Hampshire is working through a $3.3 million gap. (chronicle.com) The financial squeeze is hitting public colleges too, but in a different way. The State Higher Education Executive Officers Association said full-time-equivalent enrollment at public colleges rose 3.6% in fiscal 2025 even as education appropriations per student fell 1.0%, the first decline since 2012. (sheeo.org) (edsource.org) That left public systems with record aggregate support but less money per student. The association said state and local appropriations reached $130.7 billion in 2025, while per-student support slipped from $12,205 to $12,082. (sheeo.org 1) (sheeo.org 2) Private colleges have fewer buffers when tuition revenue weakens. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia paper behind the new model says closures and mergers can ripple outward to employees, borrowers, and local economies, especially where a campus is a major regional institution. (philadelphiafed.org) Closures have not been hypothetical in recent years. The Hechinger Report’s tracker says colleges averaged 16 closures a year from 2020 through 2023, and it has separately reported that some public campuses are now being merged or shut down as well. (hechingerreport.org 1) (hechingerreport.org 2) The near-term question is not whether higher education has money somewhere in the system. It is whether enough campuses can match staffing, programs, and state support to the students they actually enroll before more of them run out of room. (chronicle.com) (sheeo.org)