Fed holds rates steady
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at the March meeting, signaling only one likely cut this year amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. That keeps borrowing costs stable for now but means small-business financing decisions should assume rates won't drop quickly. (reuters.com)
The FOMC set the target federal funds rate range at 3.50%–3.75% and the committee vote was 11–1, with Governor Stephen I. Miran preferring a 25‑basis‑point cut. (federalreserve.gov) The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections shows the median end‑2026 federal funds rate at 3.4%, which equates to one 25‑basis‑point reduction from the current midpoint. (prod-i.a.dj.com) The SEP also raised the committee’s median forecasts for 2026: real GDP growth to 2.4%, the fourth‑quarter unemployment rate to 4.4%, and PCE inflation to 2.7%. (prod-i.a.dj.com) The Board’s Implementation Note held the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65% effective March 19, 2026, set the primary credit rate at 3.75%, and directed the New York Fed to roll over Treasury principal and reinvest agency principal into Treasury bills. (federalreserve.gov) Market moves reflected a “steady‑for‑now” view: the 10‑year Treasury yield rose to about 4.27% while the two‑year yield moved toward roughly 3.70% after the announcement. (tradingeconomics.com) Market‑pricing tools including CME‑based trackers showed very high odds the Fed would hold at the April meeting and still priced roughly one cut in 2026, mirroring the Fed’s dot‑plot median. (rateprobability.com)
