Iran war threatens jet fuel supplies

Jet fuel is the part of the oil market now flashing red. Not crude in the abstract — the actual kerosene airlines need to keep planes moving. That matters because summer schedules are already being sold, and Europe and parts of Asia do not have much slack if fuel flows stay broken. The news this week made the risk feel real: Germany asked Israel for jet fuel, and Israel said it would send some. (cnbc.com) ### Why is jet fuel the weak spot? Jet fuel is a refined product, not just raw oil. You need crude, refinery capacity, and shipping lanes all working together. The Strait of Hormuz sits in the middle of that chain. Before the war and blockade, the Persian Gulf was the single biggest source of jet-fuel exports to the world market. When that artery tightened, the hit landed especially hard on aviation fuel. (cnbc.com) ### Why are Europe and Asia more exposed? Europe imported about 20% of its jet fuel from the Gulf before the disruption. Asia has a different problem — its big refining hubs in China, South Korea, and India can make jet fuel, but they rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude. So one region loses imported fuel, while the other loses feedstock for making replacement fuel. That is why this is spreading across both continents at once. (cnbc.com) ### What changed this week? The biggest new signal was not a forecast. It was a workaround. Germany sought outside help, and Israel said it would transfer jet fuel after Berlin’s request. That tells you this is no longer just traders bidding prices up on a screen — governments are starting to manage physical supply problems. (globalbankingan([cnbc.com)g-hormuz-crisis/)) ### How tight is the market now? Pretty tight. Kpler data cited by CNBC shows global jet-fuel exports fell 30% in April to 1.3 million barrels a day from 1.9 million a year earlier. Tanker loadings last week were down about 50% from the same week in 2025. In Europe, jet fuel reached roughly $187 a barrel by (globalbankingandfinance.com)e second quarter. (cnbc.com) ### Does this mean airports run dry tomorrow? Probably not. The catch is that fuel crises often show up first as rationing by price, not empty tanks. Refineries favor diesel and gasoline when margins are tight, because those fuels matter more for freight and consumer inflation. Jet gets squeezed instead. Europe also has inventories that buy t(cnbc.com)mercial and compulsory storage. (aircargoweek.com) ### So why are airlines already cutting flights? Because airlines do not wait for the last barrel. They cut marginal routes, shrink schedules, and move planes to flights that make more money. Lufthansa has already cut 20,000 short-haul flights through October, with fuel costs part of the reason. In the U.S., airlines spent 56.4% more (aircargoweek.com)ket. (cnbc.com) ### What should travelers watch next? Watch Hormuz first, then airline schedules. If the strait reopens soon, this stays painful but manageable. If disruption drags into June and July, the problem shifts from expensive fuel to not enough fuel in the wrong places at the wrong time — basically a summer network squeeze. That means higher fares, more trimmed routes, and a bigger risk of cancellations on weaker leisure-heavy schedules. (cnbc.com) ### Bottom line? This is not yet a universal no-fly crisis. But it is no longer hypothetical either. Once governments start arranging emergency jet-fuel transfers, the market has moved past nerves and into triage. (globalbankingandfinance.com)