U.S. imports expected to ease into autumn

The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said on May 15 that import volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to stay below 2025 levels into early autumn, extending a softer pattern that has run through much of this year. Their latest Global Port Tracker forecast showed temporary year-over-year gains in May and June, but the report said those increases reflect weak comparisons after a sharp drop in imports in April 2025 rather than a broad recovery in retailer demand. March throughput reached 2.16 million twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, across the major U.S. ports tracked, up 0.6% from a year earlier and 13.6% from February, according to the report. Preliminary April volume was estimated at 2.13 million TEUs, down 3.6% from a year earlier. ### Why are May and June rising if the outlook is still weak? May is forecast at 2.17 million TEUs, up 11.1% from a year earlier, and June is seen at 2.13 million TEUs, up 8.2%, the report said. Those gains come after imports fell sharply when the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April 2025, creating a low comparison base for this year, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. Jonathan Gold said the next two months’ year-over-year increases “are only because of the sharp fall-off in imports” after those tariff announcements. He added that inflation, weaker consumer confidence and broader economic uncertainty tied to the conflict in Iran were keeping the broader import trend under pressure. ### What do the forecasts show for July through September? July is forecast at 2.2 million TEUs, down 7.8% from a year earlier, August at 2.19 million TEUs, down 5.5%, and September at 2.08 million TEUs, down 1.3%, according to the May 15 report. (just-style.com) The first half of 2026 is now projected at 12.59 million TEUs, up 0.5% from the same period in 2025. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said retailers remain cautious about building inventories. (just-style.com) He said first-quarter containerized imports were down from a year earlier and that “forward demand is weakening,” while stalled restocking and geopolitical tensions were clouding the outlook. ### What is driving retailer caution? February 9 marked an earlier warning from the same NRF-Hackett tracker, which said first-half 2026 imports were expected to decline as tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on orders. (just-style.com) Jonathan Gold said at the time that tariffs remained under debate in the courts and in Congress, and Ben Hackett said the continuing use of tariffs made trade forecasting difficult. The May update kept that theme in place. Rather than pointing to stronger consumer spending, the forecast tied the softer import path to conservative inventory decisions by retailers and to uncertainty around prices, trade policy and geopolitics, according to Gold and Hackett. ### Which ports are covered by the forecast? Hackett Associates said Global Port Tracker provides a six-month rolling forecast for 16 major North American ports. (nrf.com) The covered U.S. gateways include Los Angeles/Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, Savannah, Houston, Jacksonville, Port Everglades and Miami, among others. Port Everglades and Miami matter to freight forwarders serving the Caribbean because South Florida is a consolidation point for regional cargo. (just-style.com) The report did not publish a separate South Florida outlook in the material reviewed, but a less crowded import environment at major U.S. gateways would typically reduce pressure on vessel bookings, terminal access and drayage capacity; that is an inference based on the ports covered and the lower volume forecast. (hackettassociatesllc.com) ### What should shippers watch next? Hackett Associates said the tracker is updated on a rolling basis and presents monthly and four-quarter forecasts for the ports it follows. The next update will show whether the projected July, August and September declines hold and whether ports including Port Everglades and Miami see the same softer pattern. (hackettassociatesllc.com) (just-style.com)