Tariff policy still unsettled

President Donald Trump is threatening new 50 percent tariffs even as his administration starts unwinding older ones through a limited refund process. (politico.com) (cbp.gov) U.S. Customs and Border Protection said the first phase of its refund system will launch on April 20, 2026, for duties collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The agency said Phase 1 covers certain unliquidated entries and some entries within 80 days of liquidation. (cbp.gov) Politico reported the refund system is narrower than many importers expected. More than 26,600 importers have signed up for automatic refunds covering about $120 billion in tariff revenue, while many older or more complex claims are being pushed to later phases. (politico.com) At the same time, the U.S. Court of International Trade is weighing whether Trump’s current 10 percent global tariff can stay in place. Reuters reported that 24 mostly Democratic-led states and two small businesses sued over the tariff, which took effect on February 24 under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. (reuters.com) Section 122 lets a president impose tariffs of up to 15 percent for 150 days to address a “large and serious” balance-of-payments problem. The legal fight began after the Supreme Court in February struck down Trump’s broader tariff program under the 1977 emergency law known as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. (opb.org) (politico.com) The inflation backdrop has gotten harder to dismiss. A Federal Reserve note published April 8 estimated that tariffs implemented through November 2025 raised core goods personal consumption expenditures prices by 3.1 percent through February 2026 and added 0.8 percent to core personal consumption expenditures overall. (federalreserve.gov) The same Federal Reserve researchers said those tariffs explained all of the excess inflation in core goods relative to pre-pandemic rates, and that pass-through to consumer prices was “effectively complete” by their measure. That finding cuts against the White House argument that tariffs fall mainly on foreign producers rather than U.S. buyers. (federalreserve.gov) Trump’s latest 50 percent threat is aimed at countries that supply military weapons to Iran, and Politico reported the White House had not identified a clear legal authority for it. The same report said one possible route is Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a rarely used law that allows tariffs of up to 50 percent in narrower circumstances. (politico.com) So the tariff picture on April 14 is split three ways: one set of duties is being refunded, another set is in court, and a new set is being threatened. Importers now have April 20 circled on their calendars, while judges decide whether the administration’s replacement tariff can last beyond the spring. (cbp.gov) (reuters.com)