Oil spikes, supply hit
WTI topped $103 and Brent crossed $105 amid Mideast tensions — Brent even spiked to $105.79 intra‑day with the Brent‑WTI spread narrowing to about $2 per barrel. OPEC output plunged roughly 7.2 million barrels per day in March, keeping upward pressure on prices despite plans to boost April supply. ( )
A Reuters survey showed OPEC’s crude output plunged about 7.3 million barrels per day in March to roughly 21.57 million bpd. (thestar.com.my) The biggest month‑on‑month cuts came from Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while Venezuela and Nigeria were the only OPEC members to raise production in March. (bairdmaritime.com) The figures were compiled from flow data and trackers including LSEG and Kpler and, according to survey sources, March output estimates may still be revised as more shipping data becomes available. (tradearabia.com) OPEC+ had formally agreed to hold output steady in Q1 2026 and to resume increases in April, with eight members that had been raising output due to meet on April 5 to coordinate next steps. (bairdmaritime.com) President Trump’s April 1 address, in which he signalled continued strikes on Iran, removed hopes of a quick de‑escalation and triggered a near‑7–8% intraday gain in oil futures. (cnbc.com) Asian equity benchmarks slid in response, with regional markets falling as investors priced in prolonged Gulf‑related supply risk. (aljazeera.com) Energy analysts say the effective disruption of roughly 17.8 million bpd of trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz has exhausted market buffers, according to Rystad Energy’s analysis. (rystadenergy.com) Macquarie analysts warned that two more months of sustained conflict could push benchmark crude toward $200 a barrel, underscoring the upside risk if shipments remain curtailed. (oilprice.com)
