Canada's population dropped

Statistics Canada reported a preliminary population decline of ~102,000 in Q4 2025, driven by a sharp fall in non‑permanent immigration — the first drop since Confederation. Fewer newcomers tighten the entry‑level talent pool, potentially boosting negotiation leverage and wage pressure for in‑demand tech skills. (halifax.citynews.ca)

Statistics Canada’s preliminary quarterly release puts Canada’s population at 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026 and records a fall of 103,504 people from October 1, 2025 to January 1, 2026. (www150.statcan.gc.ca)) The agency’s tables show an estimated 2,676,441 non‑permanent residents on January 1, 2026 — a 6.0% quarterly decline driven by a drop of 171,296 non‑permanent residents between October 1, 2025 and January 1, 2026. (www150.statcan.gc.ca)) Statistics Canada explicitly cautioned the figures are preliminary and may be revised when work‑ and study‑permit extensions are fully recorded in later updates. (www150.statcan.gc.ca)) The federal immigration dossier shows policy intent to reduce the temporary population to “sustainable levels” and below 5% of the population while continuing controlled permanent admissions. (canada.ca)) Statistics Canada’s release also records an estimated 83,168 permanent resident arrivals in Q4 2025, a quarterly intake that partly offset the non‑permanent resident decline but remained below 2024 levels. (www150.statcan.gc.ca)) IRCC and industry tracking documented sharp falls in 2025 new arrivals — government and sector summaries report new student arrivals down roughly 70% and new worker arrivals down about 50% in early 2025 compared with 2024. (cicnews.com)) Recruitment surveys and sector pay studies through 2025–26 show employers responding to tighter supply: 32% of hiring managers reported raising starting salaries to attract candidates and many tech employers planned further hiring increases in 2026. (press.roberthalf.ca)) Market data place median Canadian software‑engineer base pay near CA$88,000 in 2026, while sector surveys recorded median tech salary increases of about 3.5% in 2025 — concrete benchmarks employers and offer comparisons are using now. (payscale.com)) Job‑market listings and recruitment guides show growing use of hiring sweeteners—sign‑on bonuses appear across thousands of Canadian postings and equity grants remain a standard tool for startups and scale‑ups to compete for limited technical talent. (workopolis.com))

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