U.S. inflation jump and oil shock
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.9% in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, and officials say the rise was driven mainly by an energy shock connected to the Iran conflict. (republicworld.com) Diplomatic talks in Pakistan reportedly failed to secure a ceasefire, even after very long negotiations, and at the same time some reports said tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz showed signs of partial normalisation—President Trump reacted publicly to those flow reports. (cnn.com) (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) (ibtimes.com)
U.S. consumer prices jumped 0.9% in March, the biggest monthly increase since June 2022, after gasoline prices surged. (bls.gov) The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the annual inflation rate rose to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February. Energy prices climbed 10.9% in the month, and gasoline alone jumped 21.2%, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the overall increase. (bls.gov) Prices outside food and energy moved much less. Core inflation rose 0.2% in March and 2.6% from a year earlier, while food prices were unchanged on the month and shelter rose 0.3%. (bls.gov) The March report landed after weeks of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping lane between Iran and Oman that normally carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies. Shipping analysts told CNBC that tanker traffic has not returned to normal despite a temporary truce. (cnbc.com) On April 9, CNBC reported just four transits through the strait the day before, citing S&P Global Market Intelligence, while more than 400 oil-laden tankers and dozens of liquefied gas carriers were anchored outside the Gulf, according to MarineTraffic. (cnbc.com) USNI News reported that transits did not rebound after the ceasefire announcement: Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted six transits on April 8 and three on April 9, down from 15 on April 7. Iran also published routes that kept ships under Tehran’s control because of reported mine risks in the strait. (news.usni.org) President Donald Trump publicly tied his demands to shipping access. On April 9, he said Iran “better stop now” if it was charging fees to tankers using the strait. (usnews.com) On April 11, Trump posted that “massive numbers” of empty oil tankers were heading to the United States to load crude and gas. International Business Times and Reuters both reported the post as a sign that the White House was highlighting signs of renewed flows, even as broader shipping conditions remained fragile. (ibtimes.com) (usnews.com) The diplomacy has not settled the supply picture. Talks in Islamabad ran about 21 hours and ended on April 12 without a deal, with Vice President JD Vance saying Iran did not accept U.S. terms and Iranian officials blaming Washington for the breakdown. (cnbc.com) (usnews.com) That leaves March’s inflation spike looking like an oil shock first and a broad price rebound second. The next test is whether April energy prices keep easing fast enough to prevent another headline jump. (cnbc.com)
