Summer flights at risk

Europe’s summer flight market is heading into peak season with a new weak point: jet fuel supply. Ryanair said on April 1 that shortages could hit Europe from June if the Middle East war keeps disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz. (msn.com) The Strait of Hormuz carried an average 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and oil products in 2025, about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade. The International Energy Agency said on March 11 that flows through the waterway had fallen to less than 10% of pre-war levels after the conflict that began on February 28, 2026. (iea.org) That pressure reaches airlines through refining and distribution, not just crude prices. The International Energy Agency said diesel and jet-fuel benchmark prices in Asia more than doubled in March as Hormuz traffic largely halted. (iea.org) Europe is exposed because summer demand was already building on a network that had climbed back to pre-pandemic flight volumes. EUROCONTROL said 11.1 million flights were controlled in its network area in 2025, with a peak of 37,034 daily flights on July 18 and low-cost carriers taking a 35.4% share of all flights. (eurocontrol.int) That matters most for budget airlines because fuel is their biggest variable bill on short notice. The International Air Transport Association said jet fuel accounted for about 30% of airline operating costs in its November 2024 review. (iata.org) Some carriers have protection against price spikes, but hedges do not create physical fuel if supply tightens at airports. Ryanair said in its July 2025 quarterly results that it was almost 85% hedged for fiscal 2026 at $76 a barrel and 36% hedged for fiscal 2027 at just under $66. (investor.ryanair.com) Ryanair’s own filings show how large the fuel line already is even before a supply squeeze. In the year ended March 31, 2025, the group reported €5.22 billion in fuel costs out of €12.39 billion in total operating costs. (investor.ryanair.com) Governments have tried to cushion the broader oil shock. The International Energy Agency’s 32 member countries agreed on March 11 to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated stock release in the agency’s history. (iea.org) Europe’s air traffic managers are still planning the next eight weeks as a live operational exercise, updating a rolling network plan every Friday with data from 350 airlines, 68 control centers, 55 airports and 43 states. That means the summer schedule is still being built in real time while fuel markets remain unstable. (eurocontrol.int) If Hormuz flows recover soon, the damage may show up mainly in fares and margins. If they do not, the risk shifts from expensive tickets to thinner schedules, fewer backup options and cancellations during Europe’s busiest travel weeks. (iea.org)