Coffee and beef prices jump

A pound of ground coffee that cost $6.09 in February 2024 cost $9.46 in February 2026, and ground beef rose 31% over the same two-year stretch in a new CouponFollow analysis built from Consumer Price Index data. Fourteen of the 25 staples in that basket got more expensive, so shoppers can feel squeezed even when the overall inflation rate looks calmer. (foxbusiness.com) The national inflation picture looks softer than the checkout line does. The United States Department of Agriculture said grocery prices in February 2026 were up 2.4% from a year earlier, but beef and veal, fresh vegetables, and nonalcoholic beverages were among the categories still posting large monthly increases. (ers.usda.gov) That gap is why a cart can feel worse even if one headline says “inflation cooled.” The Consumer Price Index averages hundreds of items together, so a cheaper carton of eggs or loaf of bread can offset a pricier bag of coffee without helping the family that buys coffee every week. (bls.gov) Beef has a supply problem that started long before this spring’s grocery run. The United States Department of Agriculture said the country had 86.2 million cattle and calves on January 1, 2026, down from 86.5 million a year earlier, and the 2025 calf crop fell 2% to 32.9 million head. (usda.gov) A smaller herd works like a smaller parking lot at a sold-out game: too many buyers circle for too few spaces. The same January report showed cattle on feed for slaughter fell 3% from 14.3 million head to 13.8 million head, which helps explain why ground beef and steak are still climbing. (usda.gov) Coffee has a weather problem instead of a herd problem. The United States Department of Agriculture said Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica crop was expected to drop by 6 million bags to 38 million because drought and high temperatures hurt blossoming, fruit setting, and development. (apps.fas.usda.gov) Brazil matters because it is the world’s biggest coffee producer, and the United States is a major buyer of arabica beans. The same United States Department of Agriculture report said global ending stocks were expected to fall for a fifth straight year to 20.1 million bags even as world coffee consumption reached a record 173.9 million bags. (apps.fas.usda.gov) Weather stress was not limited to one farm or one month. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s global drought report said Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s two biggest coffee producers, were both dealing with drought and heat that were affecting coffee crops. (ncei.noaa.gov) So the strange part of the grocery story is that both things can be true at once. The United States Department of Agriculture now forecasts food-at-home prices to rise 3.1% in 2026, while restaurant and other foodservice prices are forecast to rise 3.9%, which means a cheaper item in one aisle can still be erased by a pricier burger, steak, or morning cup. (ers.usda.gov) And the pressure has not fully rolled off in the newest inflation data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said overall consumer prices rose 3.3% over the 12 months through March 2026, after February grocery inflation had already been running at 2.4%, so households are still absorbing higher food bills on top of higher bills elsewhere. (bls.gov; ers.usda.gov)