Brown University: $40 billion extra gas

Brown University’s Costs of War project said on May 18 that higher fuel prices since the Iran war began on February 28 had already cost U.S. consumers more than $40 billion. The estimate comes from a research brief by Jeff Colgan, a political science professor and director of Brown’s Climate Solutions Lab, and from an online tracker that updates daily. By May 22, the tracker showed a total consumer burden of about $44.7 billion for gasoline and diesel combined. The figures arrived as AAA projected a record 39.1 million Americans would travel by car over the Memorial Day holiday period. ### Where does the $40 billion figure come from? Brown University’s May 18 brief said Americans had spent “over $40 billion” more on gasoline and diesel than they would have without the war. The project defines that as the extra amount paid above a “no-war” counterfactual based on pre-war prices and historical daily price changes. The Iran War Energy Cost Tracker says it measures the added burden by comparing actual retail prices with that no-war estimate and then multiplying the daily gap by fuel consumption demand. Brown said it uses price data from AAA and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, along with EIA consumption data and Census household data. (costsofwar.watson.brown.edu) ### What is Brown counting — gasoline only, or diesel too? Brown’s published brief counts both gasoline and diesel. The May 18 document said the higher cost of “gasoline and diesel” had topped $40 billion as of that date, and it said the average U.S. household had paid more than $300 extra since February 28. (costsofwar.watson.brown.edu) The tracker’s May 22 reading broke that total into about $24.87 billion for gasoline and about $19.78 billion for diesel, for a combined burden of roughly $44.65 billion, or $340.87 per U.S. household. That means social-media references to “$40 billion extra on gas” describe the broader Brown estimate, but the university’s own methodology includes diesel as well as gasoline. (costsofwar.watson.brown.edu) ### What changed at the pump after February 28? Brown’s tracker said the national average price for regular gasoline was $2.982 a gallon on February 28 and $4.564 a gallon on May 22, an increase of $1.582, or 53.1%. Diesel rose from $3.670 to $5.656 over the same period, according to the same tracker. AAA’s fuel-price page listed the national average for regular gasoline at $4.552 on May 22. (iranwarcost.watson.brown.edu) The Energy Information Administration’s latest weekly update, released May 19, put U.S. regular gasoline at $4.490 a gallon for the week of May 18. ### How does Brown frame the size of that number? Brown’s May 18 brief said the extra $40 billion in fuel costs could pay for the entire federal Bridge Investment Program announced in 2024 to repair and modernize more than 10,200 bridges. (iranwarcost.watson.brown.edu) The brief also said the figure exceeds the estimated $31.5 billion cost of redoing the U.S. air traffic control system and is about twice the $18.9 billion proposed for federal electric-vehicle charging and electrification programs under two Biden-era laws. (gasprices.aaa.com) Jeff Colgan’s report also placed the fuel burden alongside the Pentagon’s estimate of more than $29 billion in direct military expenditures tied to the war. Brown’s Watson School said the fuel-cost figure comes on top of those direct military costs. ### Why is this landing now? AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans were expected to travel at least 50 miles from home between May 21 and May 25, including a record 39.1 million by car. (costsofwar.watson.brown.edu) Brown’s brief explicitly said its estimate came “as summer travel season arrives,” tying the added fuel burden to a period when more households are likely to feel pump prices directly. AAA’s fuel page said the national average for regular gasoline on May 22 was above $4.55 a gallon, and Brown’s tracker showed the meter still rising daily. Brown’s online tracker remains public and updates with fresh AAA, EIA and Census inputs. (gasprices.aaa.com) (newsroom.aaa.com)