Iran war deepens budget uncertainty
Worries about global economic pain from the war in Iran intensified on Mar 29, pushing up prices and rattling markets — analysts warn this will heighten fiscal pressure on universities and could further reduce international student mobility. (toronto.citynews.ca) (newkerala.com)
Former IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath estimated global growth, previously forecast at 3.3% for 2026, would be 0.3–0.4 percentage points lower if oil averaged $85 a barrel. (abcnews.com) (abcnews.com) Goldman Sachs raised the 12‑month U.S. recession probability to about 30% and projected the U.S. unemployment rate could climb to 4.6% by the end of 2026 as oil‑price shocks ripple through markets. (bloomberg.com) (bloomberg.com) Brent crude spiked toward nearly $120 a barrel at one point before slipping below $100, and roughly one‑fifth of global oil flows move through the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying the economic impact of Gulf instability. (capitalgroup.com) (capitalgroup.com) NAFSA and IIE scenario modeling showed a 15% drop in overall international enrollment could translate into about $7 billion in lost revenue for U.S. colleges and roughly 60,000 fewer jobs tied to student spending. (nafsa.org) (nafsa.org) New international student enrollments fell about 17% in fall 2025 versus fall 2024, a decline that institutions and analysts say has already begun to squeeze campus budgets. (usnews.com) (usnews.com) Moody’s analysis warned that colleges and universities with high reliance on international tuition face “sizable” earnings pressure if enrollments drop by around 15%, increasing default and downgrades risk for some rated institutions. (universitybusiness.com) (universitybusiness.com) The Pew Charitable Trusts noted that during fiscal strain state legislatures often cut higher‑education funding and that postsecondary education is typically a state’s third‑largest expenditure, compounding gaps for public colleges. (pew.org) (pew.org) Times Higher Education reported universities are reassessing branch‑campus and internationalization plans in the Middle East because of the fighting, while Nature documented U.S. institutions implementing hiring freezes and staff reductions in 2025–26 amid funding and enrollment pressures. (timeshighereducation.com) (timeshighereducation.com)
