Polymarket shows 50% no-cut, 37% hike, 44% oil ATH

Polymarket’s live markets on May 15 showed traders leaning against Federal Reserve easing this year while assigning a meaningful chance to both a rate hike and a record in crude oil. On the platform’s Fed Rates page, “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” showed zero cuts at 67% and “Fed rate hike in 2026?” showed a 37% chance. (polymarket.com) A separate oil market, “Crude Oil all time high by…?,” showed December 31 at 42%. Polymarket says its prices are quoted from 0 to 100 cents and reflect the implied probability of an event occurring. (polymarket.com) ### Which Polymarket numbers can be verified now? Polymarket’s current pages do not match the exact 50%, 37% and 44% snapshot cited in the prompt, but they do verify a 37% reading on the rate-hike market and nearby readings on the other two contracts as of May 15. (polymarket.com) The Fed cuts market showed zero cuts at 67%, while the oil all-time-high market showed 42% for December 31. The platform’s help pages say displayed probabilities can move with the order book and may reflect either the midpoint of the bid-ask spread or, if the spread is wider than 10 cents, the last traded price. That means intraday snapshots can differ from current levels even when the underlying market is the same. (polymarket.com) ### What exactly are traders betting on in the Fed markets? The “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” market resolves to the exact amount of 25-basis-point cuts made by the Fed in 2026, including any cut at the December meeting and any emergency move outside scheduled meetings. (polymarket.com) That market remains open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET to capture any emergency action. The separate “Fed rate hike in 2026?” market resolves to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed’s December 8-9, 2026 meeting. Polymarket says the primary resolution source is the Federal Reserve’s official website. (help.polymarket.com) ### Why can “no cuts” and “rate hike” both be elevated at the same time? The two contracts measure different outcomes. A trader can think the Fed will avoid cuts all year without expecting a hike, and another can think inflation risks are high enough that a hike remains possible. Because these are separate markets rather than a single menu of mutually exclusive choices, both probabilities can trade at elevated levels at the same time. (polymarket.com) That is an inference from the contract rules and current prices. Polymarket’s own market descriptions also point to hotter inflation and steady policy as part of the current backdrop. (polymarket.com) The hike market page cites the Fed’s April 29 decision to keep the target range at 3.50%-3.75%, while the cuts market page cites April CPI at 3.8% year over year. Those descriptions are written by the platform and are not independent economic analysis. ### What does the oil all-time-high contract actually require? The oil contract does not ask whether crude will merely rise. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the official daily high for the active-month CME crude oil futures contract exceeds $147.27 by the specified date, which Polymarket identifies as the nominal all-time high. (polymarket.com) For the December 31 line, the page showed 42% on May 15. The same page showed lower odds for earlier deadlines — 4% by May 31, 18% by June 30 and 35% by September 30. That term structure indicates traders were assigning higher odds to a record later in the year than in the next several weeks. (polymarket.com) ### Where would a reader check these markets next? Polymarket’s Fed Rates hub lists the June Fed decision market at 98% for no change and the July decision market at 93% for no change as of May 15. Those pages sit alongside the broader 2026 cuts and hike contracts and update in real time on the platform. (polymarket.com) The next concrete checkpoints named in the contract rules are the Federal Reserve’s June 17 meeting, the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, and the oil market’s dated deadlines of May 31, June 30, September 30 and December 31. The Fed contracts point to the Federal Reserve as the resolution source, while the oil contract points to CME crude futures highs. (polymarket.com 1) (polymarket.com 2) (polymarket.com 3)