Jet‑fuel crunch warning

Europe’s airlines are warning that a jet-fuel squeeze could start disrupting summer flights within weeks if Middle East supplies stay blocked. (iea.org) (usatoday.com) The International Energy Agency said on April 14 that Europe could face physical jet-fuel shortages by June if it replaces only half of the fuel it normally gets from the Middle East. On April 16, Executive Director Fatih Birol said Europe has “maybe 6 weeks or so” of jet fuel left. (iea.org) (usnews.com) The choke point is the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane for a large share of the world’s oil trade. Since the Iran war escalated on February 28, tanker traffic and refinery flows tied to the Gulf have been hit, squeezing aviation fuel harder than road fuels in Europe. (imf.org) (theenergytribune.com) Jet fuel is the fuel airlines burn in turbine engines, and Europe imports more of it than any other major transport fuel. Reuters reported that about 75% of Europe’s jet-fuel imports come from the Middle East, leaving airports unusually exposed when Gulf supply falters. (majorcadailybulletin.com) (kitco.com) The shortage risk is worse because Europe’s refining system is smaller than it used to be. Reuters reported that more than 30 European refineries, equal to 16% of the region’s refining capacity, have shut over the past 25 years. (hydrocarbonprocessing.com) (economictimes.indiatimes.com) Airports Council International Europe told European Union officials that a “systemic jet fuel shortage” could become reality within three weeks if Hormuz traffic does not resume in a stable way. The group urged Brussels to treat jet-fuel availability as part of its energy-crisis response. (cruiseindustrynews.com) (businesstraveller.com) Airlines are already planning around higher costs and thinner supply. USA Today reported carriers are bracing for difficult schedule decisions through the July-to-September peak if fuel availability does not improve. (usatoday.com) (cnbc.com) Fuel prices have already jumped. The International Air Transport Association’s fuel monitor put the global average jet-fuel price at $197.83 a barrel last week, while Eurocontrol said the average price reached $4.73 a gallon on March 27 and averaged $4.57 a gallon in March, about double the level at the start of 2026. (iata.org) (eurocontrol.int) European Union officials are now drafting measures to maximize refinery output and manage supplies, according to Reuters. The next few weeks will determine whether this stays a price shock or turns into grounded planes at the start of the summer rush. (majorcadailybulletin.com) (cnbc.com)