Oil shock, supply chains holding
Goldman Sachs says the Iran war has triggered an oil shock but the broader global supply chain is, so far, avoiding systemic breakdown — most industries are absorbing higher fuel and transport costs rather than facing outright shortages, reported. Logistics providers are nevertheless bracing for volatility as companies reassess tariffs, AI risk and resiliency playbooks — and ongoing US‑China trade talks in Paris add another variable that could reshape flows later this year, noted reported.
Brent futures traded within a whisker of $120 a barrel in early March as supply disruptions intensified. (iea.org) Goldman Sachs raised its longer‑run crude forecasts and lifted Q4 2026 Brent and WTI estimates to about $71 and $67 a barrel respectively. (msn.com) Drewry’s World Container Index jumped to $2,123 per 40ft on March 12 as spot ocean rates recovered, while a contract‑tracking Containerized Freight Index showed a roughly 36.7% month‑on‑month uptick. (drewry.co.uk) Maersk temporarily suspended two Gulf‑connected services and reported operational reroutings and fuel redistribution to keep vessels moving amid regional risks. (cnbc.com) Leading P&I clubs including Gard and Skuld cancelled war‑risk cover effective March 5, a move that left scores of vessels stranded near the Strait of Hormuz and pushed carriers to avoid Gulf waters. (gard.no) Several carriers have rerouted Trans‑Suez sailings via the Cape of Good Hope, a change Maersk and others say adds thousands of kilometres to voyages and has coincided with the recent spike in container rates. (maersk.com) U.S. and Chinese officials opened trade talks in Paris on March 15 — led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng — discussing agriculture, critical minerals and “managed trade,” topics that traders warn could alter tariff lines and cargo flows later this year. (politico.com)
