100+ Chinese vessels flagged
Risk analysts are flagging a shift in scenarios away from full invasion toward economic blockade, noting Taiwan has run anti‑blockade drills while monitors report more than 100 Chinese vessels operating nearby. (x.com) (x.com)
Taiwan is preparing new anti-blockade drills as officials track an unusually large Chinese maritime presence near the island. (bloomberg.com) (usnews.com) Two Taiwanese security officials told Reuters on April 10 that China had deployed nearly 100 naval and coast guard vessels in and around the East China Sea and South China Sea that week, roughly double the usual 50 to 60 ships they said are normally present. Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo told lawmakers the military threat from China was becoming “increasingly severe.” (usnews.com) Bloomberg reported on April 12 that Taiwan plans drills in the coming weeks to keep critical supplies moving if China tries to choke off the island’s sea lanes, with energy security at the center of the planning. Taiwan’s defense ministry said on April 15 that such anti-blockade exercises are standard, while the Interior Ministry is set to lead land drills and the navy and coast guard would escort ships near Taiwan. (bloomberg.com) (taipeitimes.com) The focus on blockade reflects how Beijing’s pressure has evolved from one-off missile crises into repeated drills around ports, shipping lanes and the waters east of Taiwan. China’s Eastern Theater Command said during its April 1-2, 2025 exercises that forces practiced “joint blockade and control,” and Reuters reported in December 2025 that “Justice Mission 2025” was designed to show China could cut Taiwan off from outside support. (thediplomat.com) (usnews.com) That matters for Taiwan because the island depends on seaborne imports for fuel and other essentials, making a blockade a different kind of threat from an amphibious landing. Bloomberg tied the new drill planning to concern over access to energy and other critical supplies if commercial shipping is disrupted. (bloomberg.com) Chinese military exercises have also moved closer to the legal and physical buffers around Taiwan. Analysis in The Diplomat said the December 29-30, 2025 “Justice Mission 2025” drills marked the first time Chinese military and coast guard vessels entered Taiwan’s contiguous zone in significant numbers, narrowing the space between coercion and direct infringement. (thediplomat.com) Taipei says it is watching the buildup while trying to show Washington and other partners that it is serious about self-defense. Koo told lawmakers on April 10 that Taiwan had to demonstrate its resolve to defend itself, even as opposition parties continued to block a defense-spending increase sought by the government and encouraged by the United States. (usnews.com) Beijing says the pressure is aimed at “Taiwan independence” and outside interference, not at changing the status quo by force. Taiwan’s government rejects China’s sovereignty claim and says only the island’s people can decide their future. (time.com) (usnews.com) For now, the signal from both sides is at sea: China is keeping more ships in the region, and Taiwan is rehearsing how to keep fuel and cargo moving if those ships ever try to close the lanes. (usnews.com) (bloomberg.com)