Arizona summer outlook

Arizona is heading into a hotter-than-normal summer in 2026, with wetter monsoon conditions favored in parts of the state. (almanac.com) The Old Farmer’s Almanac said on April 15 that all of Arizona should run hotter than normal this summer, while northeast, central and eastern Arizona are expected to be both hot and rainy. Azcentral reported the forecast on April 22 and said the wetter signal would be stronger than in 2025. (almanac.com) (azcentral.com) Arizona’s monsoon season runs from June 15 through Sept. 30 under the National Weather Service definition. In Phoenix, the season typically delivers about half of the city’s annual rainfall, and in southern Arizona monsoon storms account for roughly two-thirds to three-fourths of yearly precipitation. (weather.gov) (globalfutures.asu.edu) (phoenixnewtimes.com) Federal forecasters are also leaning warm. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center lists Arizona in its April 16 seasonal outlooks for above-normal temperatures through summer, while broader Southwest precipitation signals remain mixed by period and location. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov 1) (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov 2) That split matters for daily life in Arizona because monsoon rain does not erase extreme heat. The City of Phoenix says storms peak between mid-July and mid-August, and heavy rain, blowing dust and flash flooding can arrive quickly even after long dry stretches. (phoenix.gov) (weather.gov) The comparison point is uneven. The National Weather Service’s 2025 monsoon review found below-normal rainfall across northern and eastern Arizona, but above-normal rainfall from southern California through south-central Arizona, including Phoenix and Yuma, after intense September events. (weather.gov) Arizona also entered spring with heat and dryness already in place. The University of Arizona’s March 2026 Southwest Climate Outlook said February temperatures were among the warmest 10% on record across Arizona and that more than 95% of Arizona lands were classified as abnormally dry or in drought. (climas.arizona.edu) For venues, festivals and summer operators, the forecast points to a season that may require both heat planning and rain backup plans. Arizona’s summer calendar starts in extreme heat and ends in storm season, and 2026 is shaping up to bring both. (azcentral.com) (weather.gov)