Trump teases gas relief, cites Xi

President Donald Trump said on April 12 that gasoline prices could be lower by November, “or the same or maybe a little bit higher,” tying the outlook to his Iran policy and the 2026 midterm elections. (thehill.com) In the Fox News interview, Trump said, “I hope so. I mean, I think so,” when asked whether oil and gas prices would be lower before the midterms, then added that prices “should be around the same.” CNBC and USA Today reported the comments came after U.S.-Iran peace talks failed and after the administration moved to block ships through the Strait of Hormuz. (cnbc.com) (usatoday.com) Pump prices are already elevated. AAA listed the national average for regular gasoline at $4.108 a gallon on April 15, 2026, after saying on April 9 that the U.S. average had reached $4.16, the highest level since early August 2022. (aaa.com 1) (aaa.com 2) The oil market has moved with the conflict. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Brent crude averaged $103 a barrel in March and climbed to nearly $128 on April 2 after military action disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. (eia.gov) That jump has already shown up in inflation data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the energy index rose 10.9 percent in March, led by a 21.2 percent increase in gasoline, which accounted for nearly three-quarters of the monthly rise in the Consumer Price Index. (bls.gov) Trump also claimed this week that Chinese leader Xi Jinping had agreed not to arm Iran. Publicly available U.S. government material reviewed on April 15 shows sanctions on Chinese and Hong Kong entities tied to Iranian oil and missile procurement, but no published White House, State Department, or Treasury readout in those search results confirming a new Xi pledge. (state.gov 1) (state.gov 2) (ofac.treasury.gov) The administration’s public line has focused on military pressure and sanctions. White House releases in March and April said Operation Epic Fury was launched on March 1, 2026, and later said Iran had agreed to a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while broader negotiations continued. (whitehouse.gov 1) (whitehouse.gov 2) The political risk is straightforward: presidents get blamed for gas prices even when crude is set in a global market. Trump’s own answer on April 12 left room for relief by November, but it also acknowledged that drivers could still be paying roughly today’s prices when they vote. (thehill.com) (aaa.com)