Final World Cup spots
Six last tickets to the 2026 FIFA World Cup are being decided this week — four via Europe’s playoff semis and two in intercontinental playoffs in Guadalajara, Mexico. The Republic of Ireland has just forced its way into the European playoff pool and Opta forecasts tight, closely contested semis as teams sprint for the final slots. (espn.com) (theanalyst.com) (usatoday.com)
UEFA has scheduled eight single‑leg semi‑finals for 26 March: Italy v Northern Ireland, Wales v Bosnia‑Herzegovina, Ukraine v Sweden, Poland v Albania, Türkiye v Romania, Slovakia v Kosovo, Denmark v North Macedonia and Czechia v Republic of Ireland. (uefa.com) The winners of those semis advance to one‑off finals on 31 March with each path producing one European qualifier and seeded teams hosting the semi‑finals while final hosts were set by a separate draw. (uefa.com) Opta’s Supercomputer publishes win probabilities for every tie — it gives Italy 72.1% to beat Northern Ireland and Denmark 71.3% over North Macedonia, while matches such as Ukraine v Sweden (Ukraine 56.7% / Sweden 20.9%) and Czechia v Republic of Ireland (Czechia 51.2% / Ireland 24.0%) show the model’s expected margins. (theanalyst.com) FIFA confirmed the six‑team inter‑confederation play‑off tournament in Mexico, with semi‑finals on 26 March and finals on 31 March, involving Bolivia, DR Congo, Iraq, Jamaica, New Caledonia and Suriname. (fifa.com) The match schedule puts New Caledonia v Jamaica at Estadio Akron (Guadalajara) and Bolivia v Suriname at Estadio BBVA (Monterrey) on 26 March, with DR Congo and Iraq given seeded byes into the 31 March finals in Guadalajara and Monterrey respectively. (sportingnews.com) FIFA’s draw placed the two intercontinental path winners into specific World Cup groups: the Path‑1 winner was drawn into Group K (with Portugal, Uzbekistan and Colombia) and the Path‑2 winner into Group I (with France, Senegal and Norway). (sportingnews.com) Republic of Ireland reached the play‑offs after Troy Parrott completed a hat‑trick including a 96th‑minute winner in a 3–2 away victory over Hungary at the Puskás Aréna on Nov. 16, 2025 to clinch second place in Group F. (espn.com) Poland enter a high‑pressure semi in Warsaw that many outlets frame as a potential final World Cup opportunity for 37‑year‑old Robert Lewandowski, who will lead the side against Albania in the one‑off tie. (beinsports.com)
