China‑US shipments plunge after truce

The story here is trade logistics, not just tariff politics. Washington and Beijing agreed on May 12, 2025 to slash the worst of their new tariffs for 90 days starting May 14. But by the time they reached that truce, the shipping damage was already visible — in customs data, in container bookings, and in the way importers had basically stopped placing normal orders. ### What actually changed on May 12? The U.S. and China said they would suspend 24 percentage points of the extra tariff rates they had piled on in April for an initial 90-day period, while keeping a 10% reciprocal tariff in place. On the U.S. side, the separate 20% fentanyl-related duties stayed, which meant total U.S. tariffs on many Chinese goods fell from 145% to 30%. China’s retaliatory rate on U.S. goods fell from 125% to 10%. (whitehouse.gov) ### Why did shipments plunge before the truce? Because shipping decisions happen weeks before a ship reaches port. Once tariffs jumped above 100%, a lot of normal trade stopped making economic sense. Importers canceled or delayed orders rather than lock in impossible landed costs. That is why the first hard data looked so ugly even before shelves were empty or ports looked quiet to casual observers. (whitehouse.gov) ### Where does the 21% figure come from? That number comes from China’s April trade data. China’s exports to the U.S. fell a little more than 21% from a year earlier in the first month after the April escalation, even while China’s total exports still rose 8.1% because shipments to other markets held up better. So the bilateral hit was real, but it was partly masked in the aggregate by rerouting and stronger sales elsewhere. (forbes.com) ### Where does the 60% figure come from? That one is about bookings, not customs-cleared exports. Flexport’s Ryan Petersen said ocean container bookings from China to the U.S. were down more than 60% industry-wide in the weeks after the tariff shock. Vizion data cited in market coverage also showed a sharp collapse in China-to-U.S. bookings, and vessel capacity was being cut fast enough that some comparisons looked close to pandemic-era retrenchment. (cnbc.com) ### Why do bookings matter more than headlines? Because bookings are the earliest clean signal that trade is seizing up. Customs data tells you what already shipped. Booking data tells you what companies are deciding right now. It is like seeing people stop buying plane tickets before the airport looks empty. By the time ports report a slump, the commercial decision happened weeks earlier. (forbes.com) ### Did the truce fix the problem? It helped fast, but not cleanly. Once the 90-day pause was announced, bookings from China to the U.S. snapped back hard as importers rushed to use the lower-tariff window. Later reporting showed bookings more than doubled in the week of the truce, and some measures showed an even bigger surge. That rebound does not erase the earlier plunge — it proves companies were reacting to tariff timing, not underlying demand alone. (forbes.com) ### So why is this such a big deal? Because a “temporary pause” is not neutral. It scrambles inventories, shipping rates, warehouse planning, and holiday ordering. A tariff shock can freeze trade almost overnight, then a short truce can create a frantic front-loading wave right after. The result is not stability — it is whiplash. And whiplash is expensive even when the tariffs come down. (straitstimes.com) ### What’s the bottom line? The clean takeaway is that the truce did not prevent a collapse in China-U.S. shipments — it arrived after the collapse had already started. April’s 21% drop in Chinese exports to the U.S. and the 60%-plus slump in bookings show how fast trade volumes can crack when tariff rates become punitive. Then the rebound after May 12 showed the other half of the story — companies will sprint through any temporary opening, because nobody trusts a 90-day window to stay open for long. (whitehouse.gov) (cnbc.com)