Europe summer flights risk

Europe’s summer flight schedules are under pressure because Europe may not have enough jet fuel to cover peak holiday demand. (cnbc.com) The European Union is drafting emergency steps to map refinery capacity from May and push plants to run at full use, according to a Reuters report republished by The Straits Times on April 16. The draft says more measures focused on jet fuel are still being developed before publication on April 22. (straitstimes.com) Europe used about 1.6 million barrels a day of jet fuel in 2025 and imported roughly 500,000 barrels a day, with about 75% of those imports coming from the Middle East, according to the International Energy Agency figures cited by Reuters. March imports fell to about 437,000 barrels a day, and Kpler expects April imports to drop to about 275,000 barrels a day. (hydrocarbonprocessing.com) The problem is not only oil supply. Jet fuel has to be made in refineries, and Europe has shut more than 30 refineries over the past 25 years, cutting regional refining capacity by 16%, Reuters reported. (hydrocarbonprocessing.com) That leaves airlines exposed even if crude oil can be sourced elsewhere. The International Energy Agency said in April that many European refiners were already running at maximum jet fuel output, and Reuters reported that extra cargoes from Africa and the United States are unlikely to fully replace lost Middle East supply. (straitstimes.com) The squeeze is already showing up in prices. Reuters reported benchmark European jet fuel hit a record $1,800 a ton on March 18 before easing to about $1,450 this week, while refining margins rose above $100 a barrel, more than five times a year earlier, according to HiLo Analytics. (hydrocarbonprocessing.com) Europe’s air traffic is still moving into the summer season. EUROCONTROL said the network averaged 27,784 daily flights in the week of March 23 to March 29, up 2.0% from the same week in 2025, while average jet fuel prices reached $4.73 a gallon on March 27, twice the level at the start of 2026. (eurocontrol.int) Airlines are starting to describe the strain in operational terms. Lufthansa Chief Technology Officer Grazia Vittadini told Reuters on April 15 that suppliers were no longer willing to give outlooks beyond one month, while Heathrow said the war had not yet affected its operations and that it was monitoring the situation. (straitstimes.com) The International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol said on April 16 that Europe could run out of jet fuel in as few as six weeks if the disruption persists. That timeline lands in late May, just before the busiest stretch of the summer travel season. (cnbc.com)