Mortgage rates and bond yields jump
Fixed mortgage pricing has climbed to three-month highs—30-year fixed averaging ~6.35% and 5/1 ARMs near 5.65%—driven by bond-market jitters and a ~40bp move in 5-year GoC yields this month. Lenders haven’t yet openly reprice en masse, but wholesale funding moves are already translating into higher retail prices. (finance.yahoo.com) (x.com)
Canada’s 5‑year Government of Canada benchmark yield has climbed roughly 35–40 basis points since early March to about 3.03% as of March 11, 2026. (ycharts.com, tradingeconomics.com) The Bank of Canada left its policy rate at 2.25% at the March 18, 2026 announcement, with Governor Tiff Macklem holding a press conference to explain the decision. (bankofcanada.ca, bloomberg.com) Major chartered banks’ typical posted 5‑year conventional mortgage rate remained at 6.09% in the Bank of Canada’s weekly posted‑rates table for the week of March 11, indicating limited mass repricing of posted rates. (bankofcanada.ca) Retail quoting remains dispersed: aggregator averages show the advertised 5‑year fixed around 4.36% across 10 lenders, while First National’s retail 5‑year fixed was listed at about 4.14% in early March, illustrating lender-by-lender pricing gaps. (wowa.ca, forbes.com) Canadian wholesale funding channels—CMHC MBS and the covered‑bond market—are the main conduits for converting GoC and swap moves into lender funding costs, and higher GoC yields plus swap curve repricing raise issuers’ break‑even levels for fixed products. (cmhc-schl.gc.ca, globalcapital.com) The current gap between the ~3.03% five‑year GoC yield and the ~4.36% advertised 5‑year fixed averages is roughly 133 basis points, a spread that reflects term premium, lender funding margins and product‑specific hedging costs. (ycharts.com, wowa.ca)
