Starmer faces 1,500-seat local losses
- Keir Starmer heads into England’s May 7 local elections with Labour braced for heavy losses, as MPs openly discuss his future and possible successors. - Oxford professor Stephen Fisher projects Labour could lose 1,900 councillors, while allies say losses above 1,500 could trigger a cabinet “nervous breakdown.” - The pressure follows Labour’s February loss of Gorton and Denton to the Greens, with Reform also rising. (reuters.com)
Keir Starmer is heading into the May 7 local elections with Labour MPs already talking about what happens if the party is routed. (independent.co.uk) (telegraph.co.uk) The scale of the test is unusually large: 5,013 council seats are being contested across 136 English local authorities, and Labour is defending 2,557 of them. (independent.co.uk) Several projections now point to historic losses. Stephen Fisher, a professor at the University of Oxford, has forecast Labour could lose 1,900 councillors, or 74% of the seats it is defending. (independent.co.uk) Reports from Westminster say some Labour figures see 1,500 losses as the political danger line. One cabinet minister told reporters that anything above that could prompt a “collective nervous breakdown” among colleagues. (msn.com) (europesays.com) The threat is not coming from one rival alone. Reform UK is projected to make the biggest gains in England, while the Greens are also expected to add hundreds of seats. (independent.co.uk) That squeeze has already shown up in a parliamentary contest. On February 27, the Greens won the Gorton and Denton by-election with 40.7% of the vote, Reform UK took 28.7%, and Labour fell to third on 25.4%. (reuters.com) The result was especially awkward for Starmer because he had blocked Andy Burnham from seeking the Labour nomination there. Reuters reported that Starmer had staked political capital on holding the seat and campaigned in the constituency during the week of the vote. (reuters.com) (independent.co.uk) Burnham remains one of the names discussed inside Labour whenever Starmer’s position weakens. The January National Executive Committee vote that blocked Burnham’s Commons return passed by eight votes to one and triggered warnings from Labour MPs about “bloodletting.” (independent.co.uk) The electoral danger is not limited to England’s councils. Bloomberg reported that Labour is also projected to lose ground nationwide on May 7, with the sharpest pain expected in the Welsh Senedd elections. (bloomberg.com) For Starmer, the next marker is now fixed on the calendar. If Labour’s losses on May 7 land anywhere near the grimmest forecasts, the argument over whether he can lead the party into the next general election will get louder immediately. (independent.co.uk) (telegraph.co.uk)
