CFTC eyes prediction markets

The ANPRM was published in the Federal Register as Document No. 2026-05105 on March 16, 2026, and sets a 45‑day comment window with submissions due April 30, 2026 (RIN 3038‑AF65). (cftc.gov) The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight issued Staff Advisory Letter No. 26‑08 on March 12, 2026, addressed directly to registered designated contract markets (DCMs). (cftc.gov) The Advisory instructs DCMs to conduct real‑time monitoring to identify disorderly trading and system anomalies and to undertake inquiries and disciplinary actions where warranted. (mofo.com) Chairman Michael Selig published an op‑ed in the Wall Street Journal on February 17, 2026 defending federal oversight of event contracts and the CFTC filed an amicus brief in the Ninth Circuit on February 17, 2026 supporting North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (d/b/a Crypto.com/Nadex). (cftc.gov) CFTC staff told stakeholders that DCM registration applications have more than doubled over the past year, and the agency’s analyses have cited a prediction‑market ecosystem exceeding $13 billion in notional activity. (crowell.com) The ANPRM solicits focused input on how Commodity Exchange Act core principles apply to event contracts, whether certain event contracts are contrary to the public interest, how inside information should be treated, and the cost‑benefit effects of any regulatory changes. (federalregister.gov) Multiple law‑firm and industry analyses note the Advisory’s explicit surveillance and listing expectations and predict those requirements will drive exchanges to strengthen real‑time surveillance, tighten listing standards, and adapt matching and settlement architectures to demonstrate core‑principle compliance. (dentons.com)