Small‑biz capex at crisis lows

Small-business investment has fallen so far that Bank of America says capital spending is now near levels last seen during the 2009 financial crisis. (institute.bankofamerica.com) Bank of America Institute said in its April 2026 Small Business Checkpoint that “rising energy prices and heightened uncertainty” are hitting small-business capital expenditures. The same note said payroll growth turned negative for a third straight month and overall payments growth was running at about 1% year over year in March. (institute.bankofamerica.com) The backdrop has worsened fast. In March 2026, the National Federation of Independent Business said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points to 95.8, below its 52-year average of 98.0, while its Uncertainty Index jumped to 92 from 88. (nfib.com) That same National Federation of Independent Business report showed only 16% of owners planned capital outlays in the next six months, down 2 points from February. It also said uncertainty about business conditions and whether to make capital expenditures was a main driver of the March increase in uncertainty. (nfib.com) Capital spending is the money a business uses to buy long-lived tools like trucks, ovens, software systems, or factory equipment. When that spending drops, it usually means owners are replacing only what breaks or buying only what they need to meet immediate demand. (federalreserve.gov) Federal Reserve survey data points the same way. In the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, released on March 3, 2026, revenue and employment growth held steady, but expectations for future revenue and employment growth fell to their lowest levels since 2020. (fedsmallbusiness.org) The survey also found 31% of firms had no outstanding debt, up from 21% in the 2020 survey and back to prepandemic levels. Among firms with debt, 59% used a personal guarantee and 51% used business assets, signs that expansion borrowing still carries personal risk for many owners. (fedsmallbusiness.org) Equipment financiers are seeing a split market rather than a broad freeze. The Equipment Leasing and Finance Association said January 2026 new business volume hit a record $11.6 billion and February held near that pace at $11.0 billion, with manufacturers, captives, and independent finance companies driving much of the activity. (elfaonline.org) (monitordaily.com) But that industry data does not contradict the small-business pullback. The Equipment Leasing and Finance Association index measures financing booked by lenders across banks, independents, and captives, while Bank of America and Federal Reserve data show smaller firms cutting expansion plans and delaying purchases as costs rise and confidence slips. (elfaonline.org) (institute.bankofamerica.com) (fedsmallbusiness.org) The result is a narrower kind of demand: more tax-timed purchases, more replacements, fewer bets on opening a second location, adding a new production line, or staffing up ahead of growth. For now, the data from Bank of America, the Federal Reserve, and the National Federation of Independent Business all show the same pattern: Main Street is spending carefully, not expansively. (institute.bankofamerica.com) (fedsmallbusiness.org) (nfib.com)