NOAA: Washington snowpack below normal

NOAA data released and cited in a May 16 KOMO report showed Washington’s mountain snowpack running well below normal deep into spring, after a winter in which much of the state’s precipitation fell as rain instead of snow. Parts of the Cascades were carrying only 13% to 27% of typical snow-water content for this time of year, according to the report, while the Olympic Mountains were at 10%. Federal and state agencies have tied the low snowpack to concerns about summer water supplies and wildfire conditions. Washington officials had already declared a statewide drought emergency on April 8 after describing snowpack levels as near record lows. ### How low is Washington’s snowpack right now? KOMO reported on May 16 that NOAA mapping showed some Cascade areas at 13% to 27% of normal snow-water content, with the Olympics at 10% of normal. The station said the benchmark was based on the median of the last 35 years. The Washington snow survey program says its SNOTEL and basin reports are used for water supply management, flood control and climate monitoring. (komonews.com) The agency’s Washington page lists a May 2026 Water Supply Outlook Report among its current products, underscoring that the federal snowpack monitoring system is still tracking conditions late in the season. ### Why did the snowpack fall short after a wet winter? (komonews.com) Washington’s Department of Ecology said on April 8 that the state received 104% of normal precipitation from October through February, but much of that moisture fell as rain instead of snow. The agency said Washington was left with about half of its usual snowpack even after a winter that looked wet on paper. (nrcs.usda.gov) KOMO reported that hoped-for snowfall in April and May did not erase the deficit. NOAA’s 8-to-14-day outlook, as cited by the station, showed equal chances of near-normal precipitation over the following two weeks and a 33% to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures. ### What are officials saying about water supplies? (komonews.com) Gov. Bob Ferguson said in the April 8 drought announcement, “If you look at our mountains, the challenge we are facing is clear.” Casey Sixkiller, director of the Washington Department of Ecology, said, “Going into April with half of our usual snowpack is alarming,” and said the state had to prepare for shortages and other summer impacts. (komonews.com) The Washington drought declaration said projected water supplies were likely to fall far short of summer demand. The department also said low snowpack could reduce streamflows and raise water temperatures, with effects on irrigators, fish habitat and communities across the state. (komonews.com) ### Is this only a Washington problem? Idaho’s March 1 water supply outlook said northern Idaho basins had both below-normal snowpack and below-normal precipitation in water year 2026. The report said the Skitwish Ridge Snow Course measured 12 inches of snow-water equivalent, or 47% of normal, and described the pattern as widespread across much of Idaho during a mild winter when precipitation often fell as rain rather than snow. (komonews.com) KOMO’s May 16 report said NOAA data also showed very weak snow conditions elsewhere in the West, including mountains in eastern Idaho that were described as “bare.” That broader pattern matters because Columbia Basin water supply and regional fire conditions are shaped by snow accumulation across multiple states. ### What are forecasters saying about fire season? (nrcs.usda.gov) The National Interagency Fire Center said in its May-through-August outlook, issued May 1, that drought had persisted or intensified across much of the western United States. The outlook said temperatures were likely to be above normal across the West in May, focused on the Northwest, and that precipitation was likely to be below normal in the Northwest and northern Rockies over the summer peak, especially in July and August. (komonews.com) NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in its April 16 long-lead outlook that the May-June-July 2026 forecast favored above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States and below-normal precipitation from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the Rockies and Great Plains. NOAA says those monthly and seasonal outlooks are updated on a regular schedule, while NIFC said its next national fire potential outlook will be issued on June 1. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) (nifc.gov)