Hyperliquid challenges Kalshi, Polymarket

Hyperliquid is preparing to add prediction markets to its decentralized exchange, setting up a direct contest with Kalshi and Polymarket. (bloomberg.com) Bloomberg reported April 29 that Hyperliquid, one of crypto’s busiest trading venues, is proposing event contracts alongside its existing exchange. The move would put it into the same product category as Kalshi and Polymarket. (bloomberg.com) Prediction markets let traders buy contracts tied to yes-or-no outcomes, from elections to sports to economic data. Kalshi runs inside the U.S. regulatory system, while Polymarket’s main exchange has operated without U.S. access since a 2022 settlement. (coindesk.com) Polymarket is now trying to change that. CoinDesk reported April 28 that the company is seeking Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval to reopen its main exchange to U.S. traders. (coindesk.com) (bloomberg.com) That would sharpen competition on two fronts at once: Hyperliquid moving into prediction contracts, and Polymarket trying to return onshore. Kalshi would face pressure from a crypto-native exchange with deep liquidity and a rival trying to regain direct U.S. access. (bloomberg.com) (coindesk.com) The regulatory fight is escalating at the same time. On April 28, the CFTC sued Wisconsin after the state targeted Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood and Coinbase over prediction markets. (cftc.gov) (thehill.com) The CFTC said Wisconsin’s action intruded on federal authority over designated contract markets. Reuters reported Wisconsin was the latest state drawn into the agency’s campaign to defend federal oversight of event contracts. (cftc.gov) (usnews.com) For traders, more venues means more choice, but it also means thinner liquidity if markets split across platforms listing similar contracts. It also raises design questions over how contracts are worded, settled and protected against manipulation. (bloomberg.com) The next test is whether Hyperliquid turns its proposal into a live market, and whether Polymarket can win approval to bring its main exchange back to the U.S. (bloomberg.com) (coindesk.com)