Europe warned of jet‑fuel crunch

Europe’s airports are warning that flights could start running short of fuel within about three weeks if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz does not recover in a stable way. The warning was sent on April 9 by Airports Council International Europe to European Union transport and energy officials. (cnbc.com) The chokepoint is tiny on a map and huge in practice: the Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea lane that carries oil and fuel cargoes out of the Persian Gulf. Airports Council International Europe says the Gulf supplies about 50% of Europe’s jet-fuel imports. (nationalpost.com) This is not just a price story. Airport operators are saying the bigger risk is a physical shortage, which means planes can be ready, passengers can be checked in, and the fuel truck still may not have enough kerosene to load the aircraft. (nytimes.com) The timing is what makes this unnerving. Argus Media told Euronews that the last cargoes that cleared Hormuz before the closure were expected to reach European ports around April 10, which means the pipeline is now living on what is already in tanks and what can be rerouted from elsewhere. (euronews.com) Europe does have inventories, but airports are saying those buffers are uneven and hard to track across countries. Reuters reported that the industry group asked for European Union-wide monitoring because there is no full bloc-level picture of jet-fuel stocks, refinery output, and airport-by-airport exposure. (english.alarabiya.net) If the squeeze gets worse, airlines have a short list of bad options. They can tanker extra fuel from airports that still have supply, cut less profitable routes, delay flights to wait for deliveries, or cancel departures outright when local stocks fall too low. (politico.eu) Some hubs are more exposed than others because fuel does not move around Europe like electricity on a single grid. Heathrow was identified by Politico as an acute concern, and big transfer airports matter more because one shortage there can strand connecting passengers across dozens of onward routes. (politico.eu) The fuel market is already reacting before the tanks are empty. CNBC reported on April 7 that jet-fuel prices in the United States had nearly doubled since the February 28 U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, and higher prices usually arrive before the worst physical shortages do. (cnbc.com) Airport operators are asking Brussels for emergency coordination, faster approvals for alternative supply moves, and flexibility on rules that could slow fuel substitution. Their argument is that a summer schedule built months in advance can unravel quickly once one missing input starts breaking aircraft rotations. (businesstravelnewseurope.com) For travelers, the first signs would probably not be a dramatic shutdown board. The more likely sequence is higher fares, fuel surcharges, thinner schedules to southern Europe and major hubs, and then rolling cancellations if Hormuz traffic stays disrupted into late April and May. (ft.com)