March retail lift from tax refunds
U.S. retail sales rose in March, with a 0.4% monthly increase and a 6.59% year‑over‑year gain that the report ties to tax‑refund timing. (nationaltoday.com) That pattern suggests the March spending pulse was episodic rather than broad‑based, according to the same summary. (nationaltoday.com)
A March bump in United States retail spending tracked closely with bigger tax refunds, not a broad surge in demand. (nrf.com) The National Retail Federation’s CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor said March sales, excluding auto dealers and gas stations, rose 0.4 percent from February and 6.59 percent from a year earlier. Core sales, which also exclude restaurants, rose 0.41 percent on the month and 7.05 percent on the year. (nrf.com) The trade group said March was the sixth straight monthly increase and tied the gain to “the first wave of tax refunds” arriving as gasoline prices climbed. The Retail Monitor uses anonymized credit and debit card purchases from Affinity Solutions rather than the Census Bureau’s survey-based retail report. (nrf.com) Tax refunds were materially larger this filing season by late March. Internal Revenue Service data for the week ending March 27 showed the average refund at $3,521, up 11.1 percent from $3,170 a year earlier, while total refunds issued rose to 62.96 million from 61.58 million. (irs.gov) That helps explain why the March strength looked concentrated in categories that often benefit from extra cash landing in checking accounts. Health and personal care stores rose 12.25 percent from a year earlier, clothing and accessories stores rose 10.89 percent, and sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores rose 10.88 percent. (nrf.com) The March Retail Monitor arrived before the government’s own March retail sales release. The Census Bureau said on April 1 that its March 2026 advance report, originally scheduled for April 16, was pushed back to April 21, leaving February as the latest official federal reading for now. (census.gov) The most recent Census report showed February retail and food services sales at $738.4 billion, up 0.6 percent from January and 3.7 percent from February 2025. Retail trade sales rose 3.5 percent from a year earlier, with nonstore retailers up 7.5 percent and food services and drinking places up 5.2 percent. (census.gov) The gap between the two data sets matters because they measure different things. The Retail Monitor excludes autos and gasoline by design and pulls from card spending, while the Census report covers retail and food services more broadly and is adjusted through a monthly survey process. (nrf.com)
