Analysis: 2026 Midterms to Focus on Integrity, Trade, and Tax
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are beginning to take shape around several key themes, according to a recent analysis. Central issues include election integrity legislation like the SAVE Act, pivots in trade policy following Supreme Court tariff rulings, and voter backlash over taxes and crime.
- The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act would mandate that individuals provide documentary proof of citizenship, such as a birth certificate or passport, when registering to vote in federal elections. A recent study indicated that as many as 21 million eligible voters may not have easy access to these specific documents. - On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the President does not have the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to unilaterally impose sweeping tariffs. The ruling invalidated tariffs that had cost the average American household an estimated $1,000 in 2025. - The Supreme Court's decision has opened the door for businesses to claim an estimated $175 billion in refunds for tariffs collected illegally under the IEEPA. However, the administration responded within hours by signing a new executive order to reimpose tariffs under a different legal authority, continuing the trade policy uncertainty. - A January 2026 Gallup poll found that a majority of Americans expect negative trends in key areas, with 62% anticipating rising taxes and 56% expecting the crime rate to increase. - Polling from December 2025 shows a partisan divide on key issues, with Republicans being four times more likely than Democrats to name crime as a top government priority (22% vs. 5%) and nearly twice as likely to cite taxes (19% vs. 10%). - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is forecast to provide about $160 billion in consumer tax deductions and credits in the 2026 tax year, which could increase total tax refunds by 44% year-over-year.
