GasBuddy forecasts $4.48 Memorial price

GasBuddy said on May 20 that the U.S. average gasoline price is projected to reach $4.48 a gallon on Memorial Day, a jump from $3.14 a year earlier. CNBC reported the forecast on May 23 as holiday travel began and linked the risk of further increases to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. GasBuddy said the national average could run at $4.80 a gallon from Memorial Day through Labor Day if the strait remains closed for a significant part of the summer. AAA said 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles over the Memorial Day holiday period, which runs from May 21 through May 25. ### Where does the $4.48 figure come from? GasBuddy published the forecast in a May 20 press release and said the Memorial Day national average would rise $1.34 from the same holiday a year ago. The company described 2026 as potentially the most expensive summer at the pump in years and said the outlook depends heavily on whether the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. (gasbuddy.com) Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, said in the company release that the Strait of Hormuz closure was “at the center” of the current volatility. GasBuddy also said refinery dynamics, OPEC production, the Atlantic hurricane season and lower global inventories were adding pressure to prices. (gasbuddy.com) ### Why is the Strait of Hormuz in a U.S. gas-price forecast? CNBC reported on May 23 that Gulf shipping tensions were feeding through to U.S. fuel costs as the holiday weekend began. In a separate May 20 report, CNBC said the UAE had redirected some oil exports through a pipeline to Fujairah with capacity of 1.8 million barrels per day after the Hormuz blockade cut off normal flows through the strait. (gasbuddy.com) CNBC also reported on May 22 that analysts were warning U.S. gasoline prices could hit $5 a gallon this summer if the strait does not reopen. That report said drivers were already paying near four-year highs ahead of Memorial Day. ### How long could elevated prices last? GasBuddy said the national average could be $4.80 a gallon over the full summer driving season from Memorial Day through Labor Day. (cnbc.com) The company added that all-time record highs were possible if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed for a significant portion of the summer. (cnbc.com) Yahoo Finance, citing comments De Haan gave CNN, reported that he expected the national average for regular gasoline to hit $5 a gallon at some point in June if the strait remained closed. CNBC separately reported similar analyst warnings tied to the same shipping disruption. (gasbuddy.com) ### How many people are traveling anyway? AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans would travel at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25, which would be a Memorial Day record. The group said 39.1 million were expected to drive and 3.66 million were expected to fly. CNBC reported that higher fuel, airfare and food costs were testing summer travel budgets, but travel demand was still being measured against a heavy holiday weekend. (finance.yahoo.com) That puts the GasBuddy forecast in front of one of the busiest U.S. driving periods of the year. ### What should readers watch next? (mwg.aaa.com) Labor Day is the next marker in GasBuddy’s forecast because the company’s $4.80 average covers the period from Memorial Day through that holiday. Patrick De Haan and other fuel analysts are also watching whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, while AAA’s Memorial Day travel window runs through May 25. (gasbuddy.com) (cnbc.com)