Hormuz & Red Sea chokepoint
Iran’s actions have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and deterred Red Sea routes, with reports of 21 attacks and about 170 containerships trapped—threatening as much as $1.2 trillion in global exports and snarling maritime trade lanes. (maritimegateway.com)
Major carriers have ordered ships to avoid Hormuz and pause Suez‑Red Sea services, with MSC, CMA CGM and Hapag‑Lloyd directing sheltering and Maersk confirmed rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope for affected sailings. (lloydslist.com) Maritime advisories hardened after the crisis: the US Maritime Administration issued Advisory 2026‑004 and private clubs urged masters to keep clear of naval units and coordinate with NAVCENT before transits. (skuld.com) Insurers have begun withdrawing or sharply repricing cover for Gulf and Red Sea transits, prompting carriers to suspend sailings rather than accept the new war‑risk premiums. (janes.com) Traffic metrics show a dramatic fall: tanker transits through Hormuz plunged (one industry tracker recorded an approximate 70% drop in early March) while a small number of negotiated passages — largely non‑oil general cargo — continued under ad‑hoc safe‑conducts. (lloydslist.com) The conflict spilled into the wider Indo‑Pacific when a US submarine torpedoed and sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena in international waters off Sri Lanka on March 4, 2026, an action that left dozens killed and expanded naval operations beyond the Gulf. (usnews.com) Economic and supply‑chain analyses now present wide cost ranges: Deloitte warned of sustained supply‑chain uncertainty and energy flow risks in a March 18 briefing, while independent models cite potential global GDP shocks running from hundreds of billions to multiple trillions if disruptions persist. (deloitte.com)
