Fed outlook shifts ahead of March 18
Markets are re‑pricing the Fed meeting as oil price shocks from the Iran war make near‑term rate cuts less likely—analysts say the March 18 Summary of Economic Projections will clarify rate and inflation paths after recent volatility reported.
Traders have largely removed 2026 cut bets, with short-term Treasury yields rising to their highest levels since August(bloomberg.com). Brent crude settled at $94 per barrel on March 9, about 50% higher year-to-date, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration(eia.gov); U.S. WTI futures posted a 35.6% weekly surge and closed at $90.90 on March 6 in the biggest weekly gain on record for that contract, per CNBC(cnbc.com). The Federal Open Market Committee convenes March 17–18, 2026, with the policy statement and updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on March 18 and Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET(sahmcapital.com). TD Securities models a March hold at 3.50–3.75% and has pushed its first expected cut back to September, forecasting upgraded PCE inflation projections and two dovish dissents in the SEP(tradingpedia.com). CME‑derived pricing shows near‑certainty that the Fed will hold in March, with market tools reporting roughly a 98–99% probability of no policy move at the March meeting(cnbc.com). The SEP will update each participant’s projections for GDP, the unemployment rate, core PCE inflation and the median federal‑funds “dot”; analysts say an upward revision to core PCE in the SEP would formally push expected cut timing later in 2026(federalreserve.gov). Market‑implied paths already reflect only modest easing through mid‑2026: a snapshot from RateProbability shows an implied fed‑funds midpoint near 3.51% for June and about 3.34% by September — roughly 12–28 basis points of cuts priced in through Q3 2026(rateprobability.com).
