Soybean oil jumps with biofuels boom
- Soybean-oil prices hit their highest level in more than three years on April 28, lifting crush margins and improving earnings expectations for Bunge and Archer Daniels Midland. - Analysts raised 2026 profit forecasts as North American soy crush margins reached their strongest levels since 2022, with Bunge lifting full-year adjusted earnings guidance Wednesday. - U.S. biofuel mandates and higher crude tied food oil closer to fuel markets. (epa.gov)
Soybean oil has climbed to its highest level in more than three years, giving U.S. grain processors an earnings boost just as crude oil prices surge. (usnews.com) Reuters reported on April 28 that stronger crude prices pushed soybean-oil values higher and widened North American soy crush margins to their best levels since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (usnews.com) That matters because soybean oil is no longer just a cooking ingredient. It is also a feedstock for renewable diesel and other biofuels, so higher petroleum prices can pull vegetable oils higher too. (usnews.com) The policy backdrop shifted as well. The Environmental Protection Agency said its 2026 and 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard rule raises biomass-based diesel volumes to 7.12 billion Renewable Identification Numbers in 2026 and 7.50 billion in 2027. (epa.gov) Analyst Heather Jones called the late-quarter margin move a “jaw-dropping improvement in North America” and raised her 2026 earnings estimate for Bunge to $9.15 a share from $8.03. She also lifted her Archer Daniels Midland forecast to $4.36 from $3.98. (usnews.com) Bunge then reported first-quarter results on April 29 and raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $9.00 to $9.50 a share, up from $7.50 to $8.00. The company said higher results were driven primarily by Soybean and Softseed Processing and Refining. (finance.yahoo.com) Bunge’s adjusted first-quarter earnings were $1.83 a share, versus $1.81 a year earlier, while reported diluted earnings fell to $0.35 from $1.48 because of gains, charges and mark-to-market timing differences. (finance.yahoo.com) For food buyers, the rally creates a double squeeze. Soybean oil shows up in frying and packaged foods, while the same crude-price jump that supports biofuels also raises freight and transport costs. (usnews.com) The immediate question is whether crude stays high enough to keep renewable-diesel economics attractive. If it does, soybean oil may remain priced less like a pantry staple and more like an energy commodity. (usnews.com)
