AAA forecasts 3.66 million Memorial Day flyers

AAA said on May 19 that 3.66 million people are expected to fly domestically over the Memorial Day holiday period, part of a broader forecast for nearly 45 million Americans to travel at least 50 miles from home. The projection marks a 0.3% increase from last year’s air-travel figure, according to AAA’s 2026 holiday outlook. Yahoo, in a Memorial Day travel guide published this week, cited the forecast as it advised travelers to expect crowded corridors on the roads and at airports. The five-day travel window runs from Thursday, May 21, through Monday, May 25. ### How big is the air-travel forecast this year? AAA said 3.66 million domestic travelers are expected to fly over Memorial Day weekend in 2026. The group said air passengers account for about 8% of all holiday travelers in its forecast. The broader AAA estimate put total Memorial Day travel at 45 million people, up from 44.8 million a year earlier. The agency said that would set a record for the holiday period. ### How does that compare with last year? The 0.3% increase in flyers is small, but it still puts air travel above 2025 levels, according to AAA. The agency’s year-over-year comparison came alongside similarly modest growth in overall holiday travel. AAA said 39.1 million people are expected to drive this year, making road trips the dominant mode of travel. Another 2.2 million are forecast to travel by bus, train or cruise, the agency said. ### What is AAA using to make the forecast? AAA said its Memorial Day forecast counts travelers going at least 50 miles from home during the five-day holiday period. The organization defines the travel window as the Thursday before Memorial Day through Memorial Day itself. AAA also said its airfare figures reflect what travelers paid when they booked Memorial Day weekend trips. Based on that booking data, the group said roundtrip domestic flights were 6% cheaper than last year, with an average ticket price of $800. ### Why are more people flying if the increase is so small? AAA said lower average ticket prices helped support air demand even as overall growth remained under 1%. The agency said many trips were booked before rising jet-fuel prices began feeding into airfare. Yahoo’s travel guide paired the AAA forecast with advice on timing, warning that travelers should expect congestion across major travel corridors through the holiday weekend. The outlet said Monday is expected to be especially busy on the roads for much of the day. ### What should travelers watch over the weekend? Memorial Day travelers are also facing weather disruptions in parts of the country. The New York Times reported that much of the United States is expected to be wet and cool over the holiday weekend, while western states should see more seasonal and drier conditions. Airports in the New York area have also drawn added attention this week. NBC News reported that a United Airlines flight from Newark to Guatemala was diverted to Washington Dulles after a passenger allegedly tried to open a door in flight. AAA’s forecast period ends on Monday, May 25, and travelers can track updated airport conditions, airline advisories and roadway timing through carriers, airports and local traffic agencies over the holiday weekend.