US export licensing frictions grow

A bottleneck inside one U.S. government office is now deciding whether billions of dollars of artificial intelligence chips move this quarter or sit in limbo for months. Bloomberg reported on April 10 that the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security is struggling with staffing losses, slower reviews, and unclear direction even as Washington tries to expand approved chip sales abroad. (bloomberg.com) That office handles export licenses for “dual-use” goods, which means products with civilian uses that can also help militaries or intelligence services. The Government Accountability Office said in 2025 that the Bureau of Industry and Security reviews those licenses with the Defense, Energy, and State departments, so every extra step can slow a shipment. (gao.gov) The slowdown is not a paperwork footnote. Transport Topics, citing Bloomberg, said staff turnover inside the bureau has reached nearly 20% and that processed licenses have fallen by about 25%, leaving billions of dollars in exports stuck in the queue. (ttnews.com) Artificial intelligence chips are the main pressure point because they are the engines inside the servers that train chatbots, image models, and military targeting software. Nvidia became the center of this fight because its graphics processors are still the standard hardware for many of those systems. (gao.gov) (nvidianews.nvidia.com) Washington has kept tightening the rules in stages. Nvidia said the U.S. government told it on April 9, 2025 that exports of its H20 chip to China would require a license, and the company booked a $4.5 billion charge tied to excess inventory and purchase obligations after that change. (nvidianews.nvidia.com) Then the policy shifted again. On January 13, 2026, the Commerce Department said it would review license applications for Nvidia H200 chips, Advanced Micro Devices MI325X chips, and similar processors on a case-by-case basis instead of treating them as automatic denials for China and Macau. (bis.gov) (federalregister.gov) That sounds like an opening, but a case-by-case system only works if the people reviewing the cases can keep up. Bloomberg’s April 10 report says the same bureau that got the new workload has fewer people, more oversight, and longer review times, which means companies cannot plan production or deliveries with much confidence. (bloomberg.com) (ttnews.com) The demand on the other side of the border has not gone away while Washington sorts out its queue. Bloomberg reported on April 10 that Shenzhen-based Sharetronic Data Technology told Beijing regulators it held about $92 million of Nvidia server systems containing restricted chips, including hardware that records suggest was not supposed to be sold into China without U.S. permission. (bloomberg.com) (theedgesingapore.com) That disclosure landed hours after U.S. authorities charged a Super Micro Computer co-founder with illegally smuggling billions of dollars’ worth of Nvidia chips to China, according to Bloomberg’s report on the Sharetronic filing. The sequence showed both sides of the market at once: official channels moving slowly and unofficial channels finding customers anyway. (bloomberg.com) For Nvidia and its suppliers, the practical problem is not just whether a chip is banned or allowed. The practical problem is whether a customer order can survive months of license uncertainty, redesign costs, and the risk that the rules change again before the shipment leaves the warehouse. (nvidianews.nvidia.com) (bloomberg.com) So the fight is no longer only about drawing a red line around the most advanced chips. It is also about whether the United States can run a licensing system fast enough to make its own export policy real, instead of leaving companies waiting and gray-market traders to fill the gap. (ttnews.com) (gao.gov)