Airfare pressure from jet fuel

A gallon of jet fuel in Europe averaged $4.57 in March 2026, roughly double the level at the start of the year, and Eurocontrol said the spike was tied to Middle East conflict disrupting oil supplies. (eurocontrol.int) That matters fast because fuel is one of the two biggest airline costs, alongside labor, and the International Air Transport Association says jet fuel can make up 25% to 30% of airline operating costs. (iata.org) The shock started after the conflict escalated on February 28, 2026, when tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell by 70% to 80% and a route that normally carries about 20% of the world’s oil became effectively clogged. (iata.org) Europe is unusually exposed because 25% to 30% of its jet fuel demand normally comes from the Persian Gulf, so a supply hit there lands directly on airports in the United Kingdom and the European Union. (iata.org) Airlines do not reprice every seat on the day fuel jumps, because many carriers hedge part of their fuel bill in advance, but the International Air Transport Association warned on March 13 that sudden fuel moves are harder for airlines to absorb than high prices alone. (iata.org) That is why summer tickets can rise even before the peak holiday rush starts: airlines are buying fuel at higher spot prices now, while also deciding how much margin they need on seats they will sell for June, July, and August departures. (iata.org) Eurocontrol said the average jet fuel price hit $4.73 a gallon on March 27, 2026, which was 4% higher than two weeks earlier, so the pressure was still building at the end of March rather than fading. (eurocontrol.int) There is a second problem beyond price: fuel has to be in the right place at the right airport, and the International Air Transport Association said the current disruption exposed “deep vulnerabilities” in jet fuel security for regions dependent on Gulf supply. (iata.org) When that kind of supply chain tightens, airlines can face costlier refueling stops, longer turnarounds, or last-minute schedule changes, which is one reason fuel shocks often show up as both pricier tickets and messier operations. (iata.org; eurocontrol.int) This is landing on a market that was already expected to stay busy: Eurocontrol’s spring 2026 forecast put European traffic at about 11.3 million flights for 2026, up 2.7% from 2025, with southern and eastern Europe still leading growth on leisure demand. (eurocontrol.int) So the airfare story is not just “oil went up.” It is that a February 2026 geopolitical shock hit a fuel system Europe relies on, prices doubled within weeks, and airlines heading into the summer schedule now have to spread that bill across millions of seats. (iata.org; eurocontrol.int)