Putin signals potential nuclear doctrine changes

Vladimir Putin used a September 25, 2024 Security Council meeting to announce proposed changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, linking the move to what Moscow said were new military risks around the war in Ukraine. The remarks came less than two weeks after Putin warned that any Western decision to let Ukraine use long-range missiles against targets deep inside Russia would mean NATO countries were directly entering the war. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later described the doctrine changes as a “signal” to Western governments. Russia then codified the revised doctrine in a presidential decree signed on November 19, 2024. ### What exactly did Putin say on September 25? The Kremlin said on September 25, 2024 that Putin had convened the Security Council’s standing conference on nuclear deterrence in Moscow to discuss updating the “Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence.” In opening remarks published by the Kremlin, Putin said the document, alongside the military doctrine, formally defines Russia’s nuclear strategy. (en.kremlin.ru) Putin said at that meeting that nuclear forces remained a “last resort measure” to protect sovereignty, but he also said the doctrine needed updating. According to the Kremlin transcript and later reporting on the proposals, the revisions were meant to broaden the circumstances in which Russia could consider nuclear use, including cases involving aggression by a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear power. (en.kremlin.ru) ### How did this connect to the long-range missile dispute with NATO? Putin said on September 12, 2024 that if Western countries allowed Ukraine to use long-range Western-made missiles against Russian territory, “NATO countries” would be “at war with Russia.” He said such strikes would not amount to an independent Ukrainian decision because, in Moscow’s account, targeting and mission planning would depend on Western military support. (en.kremlin.ru) Reuters reported on September 1, 2024 that Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov had already said work on changes to the doctrine was at an advanced stage and was tied to what he called escalation by Russia’s Western adversaries. That placed the September 25 announcement inside a broader Kremlin effort to answer debate in Washington and European capitals over easing strike restrictions for Kyiv. (themoscowtimes.com) ### Why did the Kremlin call it a “signal”? Dmitry Peskov said on September 26, 2024 that the proposed changes should be viewed as a “signal” to Western countries, according to Meduza’s report on his remarks. Peskov’s formulation matched the Kremlin’s public effort to frame the doctrine update not as a routine paperwork change but as a warning tied to Western military decisions on Ukraine. (yahoo.com) TASS reported the same day that the doctrine changes were intended to strengthen security conditions and respond to the international environment described by Russian officials. Independent analysts, including CSIS, said the timing was aimed at deterring further Western military support for long-range strikes, though that interpretation comes from outside experts rather than the Kremlin itself. ### What changed from the earlier doctrine? (meduza.io) Reuters reported that Russia’s 2020 doctrine allowed nuclear use in response to a nuclear attack or a conventional attack that threatened the existence of the state. The September 2024 proposals indicated a lower and broader threshold by explicitly addressing attacks by non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers and by widening the types of threats covered. (tass.com) A Kremlin decree signed on November 19, 2024 formally approved the updated doctrine. The decree is the next key document for readers who want the final legal text rather than the September meeting remarks or later Kremlin commentary. ### What is the cleanest way to read this episode? The clearest chronology is September 1, 2024 for Ryabkov’s statement that revisions were coming, September 12 for Putin’s warning on long-range strikes, September 25 for Putin’s public presentation of doctrine changes, September 26 for Peskov’s “signal” comment, and November 19 for the signed decree. (yahoo.com) Those dates show the doctrine shift unfolded as a sequence of public warnings tied to the same dispute over Western-backed strikes into Russian territory. (kremlin.ru)