Dimon flags three big risks

Jamie Dimon used his annual shareholder letter to say markets may be underestimating three threats: war, sticky inflation and heavy government borrowing. (jpmorganchase.com) JPMorgan Chase published the 2025 annual report and Dimon’s letter on April 6, 2026, a week before the bank’s scheduled first-quarter earnings call on April 14. The bank said it had $4.4 trillion in assets and $362 billion in stockholders’ equity as of December 31, 2025. (businesswire.com) In the letter, Dimon put Ukraine, the war in Iran, broader Middle East hostilities, terrorism and tensions with China at the top of his risk list. He said those conflicts could drive oil and commodity shocks and force another reshaping of global supply chains. (jpmorganchase.com) He also said the United States economy still looked resilient, with consumers “still earning and spending” and businesses “still healthy,” but added that resilience has been supported by past stimulus and large federal deficits. He warned that higher spending on infrastructure and security could keep inflation sticky and interest rates higher than markets expect. (jpmorganchase.com) That warning lands as investors keep trying to time Federal Reserve rate cuts and gauge how long borrowing costs will stay elevated. Dimon wrote that high asset prices “create additional risk if anything goes wrong,” tying his macro warning directly to stocks and other markets. (jpmorganchase.com) Dimon’s annual letters carry weight on Wall Street because he runs the largest United States bank by market value and uses the letter to go beyond JPMorgan’s earnings. CNBC said this year’s version also highlighted risks around artificial intelligence, private markets and bank regulation. (cnbc.com) He used similar language a year earlier, warning in the 2024 annual report, released on April 7, 2025, that deficits, tariffs and geopolitical strain could keep inflation elevated and raise recession odds. This year’s letter updated that framework with a direct reference to the war in Iran and the possibility of fresh commodity-price shocks. (jpmorganchase.com, jpmorganchase.com) Dimon also renewed his criticism of bank rules, calling parts of recent Basel Three Endgame and global systemically important bank surcharge proposals “nonsensical.” He argued that some post-2008 rules made the system slower and reduced productive lending, a view regulators and reform advocates have long disputed. (cnbc.com) The letter ends on a steadier note than its risk list. After laying out war, inflation and deficits, Dimon wrote that JPMorgan would keep helping clients through the uncertainty and that the bank “cannot confidently predict the outcome of current events.” (jpmorganchase.com)