Brazil inflation and rally

Brazil’s inflation sped up in March, even as Brazilian stocks kept climbing. (ibge.gov.br, finance.yahoo.com) Brazil’s official consumer price index, the Extended National Consumer Price Index, rose 0.88% in March after 0.70% in February, pushing 12-month inflation to 4.14%. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics published the data on April 10. (ibge.gov.br, ibge.gov.br) The index measures the cost of living for households earning 1 to 40 minimum wages, and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics lists March 2026 inflation at 1.92% so far this year. (ibge.gov.br, ibge.gov.br) That puts inflation above Brazil’s continuous target of 3.0%, though still inside the official tolerance band of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. The Central Bank of Brazil says that target has applied since January 2025. (bcb.gov.br) The central bank’s March 2026 Monetary Policy Report said inflation had eased to 3.8% in February from 4.5% in November, but analysts’ expectations still remained above target. In the same report, the bank said higher oil prices were a major reason its reference scenario showed inflation rising again through the end of 2026. (bcb.gov.br, bcb.gov.br) Stocks have told a different story. The iShares MSCI Brazil exchange-traded fund, a United States-listed proxy for Brazilian equities, closed at $41.33 on April 10, up 29.20% year to date and 43.56% over six months, according to Yahoo Finance. (finance.yahoo.com) BlackRock, which manages the fund, says EWZ tracks an index of Brazilian equities. That means the rally reflects investor demand for listed companies, not a drop in supermarket or fuel bills. (ishares.com, ibge.gov.br) Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, the Selic, remains the central bank’s main tool for steering prices. The Central Bank of Brazil says the Selic is the policy rate used to implement monetary policy. (bcb.gov.br, bcb.gov.br) The next read on consumer prices comes on April 28, when the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics is scheduled to publish the April mid-month inflation index. Until then, Brazil is carrying both a hotter inflation print and a stock market near fresh highs. (ibge.gov.br, finance.yahoo.com)