China expands inland pipelines from Russia

China’s push to expand overland energy links with Russia and Central Asia is not one project but a stack of them, at different stages and serving different fuels. On May 20, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline in Beijing, while existing oil and gas routes from Kazakhstan and Russia continued to build volume. The result is a larger inland supply network that runs into northern and western China rather than through seaborne import lanes. Analysts have long said that matters for China because pipelines are harder to interrupt than tanker traffic in a maritime crisis. ### Which pipelines are actually moving, and which are still on paper? The Russia-China east route is already operating. CNBC, citing official statements, reported that the existing Power of Siberia 1 system delivers about 38 billion cubic meters of gas to China annually, and that Russia and China have agreed to expand annual capacity further. The Far Eastern route is further behind but no longer theoretical. AK&M reported on May 18 that Gazprom and CNPC signed a coordination agreement tied to their long-term gas sales contract for that route. Interfax previously reported that the project would add 10 billion cubic meters a year once it reaches full capacity. Power of Siberia 2 remains the biggest unresolved piece. (cnbc.com) CNBC reported that the proposed line would run 2,600 kilometers from Russia’s Yamal fields to China via Mongolia and carry 50 billion cubic meters a year, but pricing, financing and timing were still unsettled as of the Putin-Xi talks on May 20. ### How does Central Asia fit into the same map? Kazakhstan is already a material part of China’s overland energy intake. (akm.ru) S&P Global reported that Kazakhstan exported an estimated 3.81 million metric tons of gas to China via the Central Asia pipeline system in 2024, equal to 6.9% of China’s total pipeline gas imports that year. (cnbc.com) On February 11, CNPC and Kazakhstan’s national gas company signed a supplementary agreement that increased contracted gas volumes for the 2024-25 supply year by one-third, according to S&P Global, citing Xinhua. CNPC also finalized a crude oil spot purchase agreement with Tengizchevroil on the same day. (spglobal.com) Kazakhstan’s oil route into China is also established infrastructure, not a new concept. KazTransOil said on March 10 that crude moved through the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline had reached 200 million tonnes since the line opened in 2006. Kazakhstan-China Pipeline LLP says the Atasu-Alashankou line has maximum throughput of 20 million tons a year, while the Kenkiyak-Kumkol section has capacity of 10 million tons a year. (spglobal.com) ### Why do analysts focus on “maritime exposure”? China imports large volumes of oil by sea, including from the Middle East, so every additional inland barrel or cubic meter changes the mix of how supplies arrive. Pipeline deliveries from Russia, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian suppliers enter directly through land borders and do not depend on sea lanes. Analysts cited in think tank and market commentary have argued that this reduces China’s exposure to disruptions in a contingency that affects shipping routes, including a Taiwan crisis. (interfax.kz) That is an inference from the geography of the network and from the fact that overland routes bypass chokepoints used by tankers; it is not a claim Beijing has publicly framed in those terms in the sources reviewed here. ### Where does U.S. pressure on other suppliers enter the story? Washington continues to use sanctions tools against rival energy producers, including Iran and Russia. The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control listed Iran-related designations on May 19 and May 11, and Russia-related action on May 18 and May 8. European measures have also added pressure on Russian Arctic oil flows. (cnbc.com) The Barents Observer reported that an April 22 sanctions package in Brussels included a maritime services ban on crude oil, tightening constraints around Russian Arctic shipments. ### What should readers watch next? The next marker is whether Russia and China settle commercial terms for Power of Siberia 2. (ofac.treasury.gov) CNBC reported on May 20 that price, financing and delivery timing were still unresolved, even as the project topped the Putin-Xi agenda. The parallel marker is execution on routes that are already moving. Gazprom and CNPC are advancing the Far Eastern route, while Kazakhstan and CNPC continue to add gas and crude deals on top of existing pipeline capacity into Xinjiang. (thebarentsobserver.com) (akm.ru) (cnbc.com)