Summer flights face fuel risk
Airlines are already canceling flights as jet fuel prices climb and supplies tighten because of the Iran war, and industry reporting warns European supply could fall to roughly six weeks if disruptions persist. (businessinsider.com) That short supply picture is expected to raise fares and increase the risk of cancellations for Europe‑bound travel this summer. (thepointsguy.com) (openthemagazine.com)
Europe’s summer flight schedule is starting to buckle as airlines cut routes and officials warn jet fuel stocks could run dangerously low by June. (apnews.com) International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told The Associated Press on April 17 that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked. The International Air Transport Association said on April 17 that cancellations in Europe could begin by the end of May. (apnews.com) (globalbankingandfinance.com) Jet fuel is the refined fuel airlines pump into planes before takeoff, and Europe imports more of it than any other transport fuel. IATA said Europe gets about 75% of its jet fuel imports from the Middle East, leaving the region exposed when Gulf supply routes are disrupted. (globalbankingandfinance.com) The squeeze starts with the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that moves oil and refined fuels. Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, the effective closure of that route has choked off supplies and driven up jet fuel costs. (cnbc.com) Airlines are reacting before tanks run dry because fuel is usually their biggest cost after labor. The International Air Transport Association’s fuel monitor said the global average jet fuel price was $197.83 a barrel last week. (iata.org) (cnbc.com) In the U.S., jet fuel prices nearly doubled from $2.50 a gallon on February 27 to $4.88 on April 2, CNBC reported. Europe has seen sharper increases, and Politico reported prices there have more than doubled since the war began. (cnbc.com) (politico.eu) Lufthansa said this week it would accelerate the retirement of 27 CityLine aircraft and later pull six older long-haul jets, for a total reduction of 38 planes. KLM said it will operate 80 fewer return flights from Amsterdam Schiphol in May, mainly on routes with multiple daily frequencies. (politico.eu) United Airlines has also warned that higher fuel costs could force cuts on Asia flying, and Chief Executive Scott Kirby said in March that the carrier was pruning near-term service rather than “burning cash” on flights that could not absorb the added cost. Lufthansa Chief Financial Officer Till Streichert said the group’s capacity cuts had become unavoidable because of higher kerosene costs and geopolitical instability. (cnbc.com) (politico.eu) European Union officials are pushing back on the bleakest forecasts. European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said on April 17 there was “no indication of systemic fuel shortages” that would cause widespread cancellations, while adding that Brussels is preparing coordinated action if supply conditions worsen. (argusmedia.com) That leaves summer travelers with a narrower buffer than airlines usually want at the start of peak season. If replacement cargoes do not arrive fast enough, the next cuts are likely to show up first in higher fares, thinner schedules and fewer backup flights when something goes wrong. (apnews.com) (argusmedia.com)
