Hourly data shows heat pumps handle harsh winters; federal credits boost adoption

Hourly temperature data from cities across North America is being used to challenge one of the most persistent objections to heat pumps: that they stop being practical in real winter weather. Nate Adams, an HVAC contractor and columnist for ACHR News, wrote on August 1 that city-by-city temperature records show heat pumps can cover a larger share of the heating season than many contractors and homeowners assume. The argument matters because heat pumps are often sold as a cooling upgrade or a mild-climate option, while many households still assume they need a furnace for most winter conditions. The Internal Revenue Service says U.S. homeowners could claim up to $2,000 per year for qualified heat pumps under the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit for improvements placed in service through December 31, 2025. (achrnews.com) ### What did the hourly data actually show? ACHR News said Adams grouped temperatures into “Easy,” “Medium,” and “Hard” heating conditions using hour-by-hour weather records from North American cities. He wrote that the point of the exercise was to measure how often homes really face the coldest conditions, rather than assuming winter is uniformly severe. (irs.gov) Fairbanks, Alaska, was Adams’ toughest example, and he wrote that 58% of the year fell in the “Easy” range, 25% in “Medium,” and 16% in “Hard.” Minneapolis, which he called the most realistic continental U.S. worst-case, spent 81% of the year in “Easy” conditions, 17% in “Medium,” and 3% in “Hard,” according to the article. ### Why does that matter for a homeowner choosing equipment? (achrnews.com) Heat pumps work by moving heat rather than creating it through combustion or electric resistance, which is why they can use less energy over time. The IRS credit page lists qualified heat pumps among eligible home improvements, and The Cool Down said that lower operating costs can improve the payback period for households comparing a heat pump with conventional HVAC equipment. (achrnews.com) The same ACHR News piece said the coldest slice of the year may still require different equipment choices. Adams wrote that “Hard” hours can call for a top-tier cold-climate unit or a hybrid setup in which a furnace handles the coldest periods. ### Are federal tax credits still part of the U.S. case? The IRS says the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit applies to qualifying improvements placed in service from January 1, 2023, through December 31, 2025. (irs.gov) The agency says the annual maximum credit includes up to $2,000 for qualified heat pumps, and the credit is nonrefundable. That date matters for readers seeing broad claims about “federal credits” in 2026. (achrnews.com) The current IRS guidance says the credit window runs through the end of 2025, so homeowners considering installations now need to check whether they are looking at past federal tax-credit rules, state or utility incentives, or other rebate programs. ### What support is available in the UK right now? (irs.gov) The U.K. government said last month that, from July 21, the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant for some off-gas-grid homes in England and Wales would rise from £7,500 to £9,000. The government said the increase was aimed at households moving from heating oil to a heat pump. Cotswold District Council said on July 30 that some households in the Cotswolds could access up to £9,000 toward installation costs through that scheme. (irs.gov) Ofgem, which administers the program, says the £9,000 level for eligible off-gas-grid properties runs until March 31, 2027. ### Where should readers check next? U.S. homeowners can check the IRS home-energy credit page for the exact placed-in-service dates, annual caps and manufacturer identification requirements for 2025 claims. (gov.uk) England and Wales households can check GOV.UK or Ofgem for Boiler Upgrade Scheme eligibility, with the higher £9,000 support for eligible off-gas-grid properties scheduled to run through March 31, 2027. (irs.gov) (news.cotswold.gov.uk)