Technical Standards Framed as Tools of Economic Sovereignty

The battle for 6G has already begun, with geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China poised to shape the landscape from the design phase. This next-generation network is viewed as a strategic imperative, with global superpowers vying to control a technology that supports their sovereignty. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) aims to finalize the 6G standard by 2030, but the competition could lead to a fragmented global network with separate spheres of influence. The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) is managing the transition, with Release 18 (5G-Advanced) serving as the bridge to 6G. The formal study items for 6G are being framed in Release 20 (2025-2027), with the first technical specifications expected in Release 21, which is anticipated to be frozen no earlier than March 2029. Key technologies being developed within 5G-Advanced, such as AI/ML for network optimization and non-terrestrial networks, will form the foundation for 6G. In parallel to the 6G race, the Open RAN (Radio Access Network) movement is being promoted by the U.S. and its allies as a way to reduce dependency on Chinese equipment from companies like Huawei and ZTE. Open RAN introduces open interfaces that allow for a mix-and-match approach to hardware and software from various vendors, aiming to disrupt the current oligopoly held by Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson. This initiative is seen as a geopolitical strategy to ensure supply chain resilience and greater national sovereignty over critical digital infrastructure. The strategic importance of standards extends to the rapidly growing number of Standard Essential Patents (SEPs), which are patents necessary to implement a specific industry standard. The number of newly declared SEPs has nearly tripled in recent years, with over 150,000 patents declared for 5G alone since 2015. This has led to an increase in litigation and a focus from regulatory bodies like the European Commission on ensuring fair, reasonable, and non-discriminatory (FRAND) licensing terms. Beyond telecommunications, standards for emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing are becoming new arenas for geopolitical competition. Organizations like ISO, IEC, and IEEE are developing foundational AI governance frameworks, such as ISO/IEC 42001, the first certifiable standard for AI management systems. In quantum technology, nations are launching major initiatives to develop quantum-resistant cryptography and establish early standards for quantum computing and communication. The European Union is actively pursuing "digital sovereignty," aiming to act independently in the digital realm by setting its own legal frameworks and investing in strategic technologies. This involves not just regulation but also strategic participation in international standardization to ensure European interests are represented. The goal is to reduce dependency on external actors while remaining open to global collaboration. The U.S. government has also recognized the strategic importance of standards, with policymakers expressing concern over China's state-led approach to influencing international standards bodies. Initiatives like the National Quantum Initiative Act and the Post-Quantum Cryptography Initiative are aimed at maintaining U.S. leadership in critical technology areas. The U.S. is also using export controls to limit the participation of Chinese firms in certain standards discussions, such as with the open-source semiconductor architecture RISC-V. Ultimately, controlling technical standards is seen as a way to gain economic leverage and strategic advantage on the global stage. Nations that successfully embed their proprietary technologies into international standards can create significant economic benefits through licensing fees and royalties. This shift from a focus on manufacturing to a focus on influencing the underlying rules of technology is reshaping the dynamics of international trade and power.