10-year Treasury hits 4.605%

U.S. Treasury yields rose again on Monday, extending a selloff that had already pushed long-dated government borrowing costs to their highest levels in about a year. CNBC’s real-time market data showed the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.603% around 3:57 a.m. EDT, after a Friday close of 4.595%, while the network’s markets coverage said the 10-year later touched 4.605% and the 30-year reached 5.133% in midday trading. The move followed a sharp rise on May 15, when CNBC reported the 30-year yield at 5.121% and the 10-year at 4.595%. Yields rise when bond prices fall. Monday’s move came after a week of firmer U.S. inflation readings and renewed pressure across global bond markets. CNBC reported on May 18 that investors were contending with “fears of resurgent inflation,” while Reuters said bonds from Tokyo to New York extended losses as rising energy prices linked to the Middle East war fed inflation concerns and drove wagers on further central-bank tightening. The Federal Reserve’s daily H.15 release for May 15 showed the 10-year constant-maturity Treasury yield at 4.47% and the 30-year at 5.02%, underscoring how much intraday market yields had moved above the latest official daily readings. ### Why were Treasury yields moving higher on Monday? April inflation data published last week set the backdrop for the latest rise in yields. CNBC reported on May 15 that the consumer price index climbed 3.8% from a year earlier, the highest since May 2023, while producer prices rose at a 6% annual rate, the highest since late 2022. CNBC also said April import prices rose 1.9% on the month and 4.2% from a year earlier. (cnbc.com) Energy prices added to that pressure. Reuters said on May 18 that rising oil prices tied to the ongoing Middle East war were fanning inflation fears across global bond markets. CNBC reported on May 15 that West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $104.39 a barrel and Brent crude at $108.30 as investors reassessed the inflation outlook. (cnbc.com) ### What did the long end of the Treasury market show? The 30-year Treasury yield moved above 5.1%, a level CNBC said on May 15 was the highest in nearly a year. CNBC’s Treasury coverage listed that move as a fresh high for the recent selloff, and Monday’s midday reading of 5.133% put the long bond above Friday’s 5.121% intraday level. (globalbankingandfinance.com) The 10-year Treasury yield, the benchmark for a wide range of borrowing costs, also remained near the top of its recent range. CNBC’s quote page showed a May 18 open of 4.607%, a day high of 4.631% and a previous close of 4.595%. Reuters reported the 10-year had touched 4.631% in early Monday trading, the highest since February 2025. ### What were investors saying about inflation and Fed policy? (cnbc.com) Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, said in a note cited by CNBC on May 15 that “inflation is still a problem.” He added that “long end rates are now in control of monetary policy,” linking the rise in yields to inflation, debt and deficit concerns. (cnbc.com) CME Group says its FedWatch tool tracks rate-change probabilities implied by 30-day Fed funds futures. CNBC’s markets update said traders had reduced pricing for 2026 rate cuts during the week, though exact probabilities can shift throughout the trading day. ### How do Monday’s market levels compare with official Fed data? The Federal Reserve’s H.15 release posted at 4:15 p.m. each business day provides the official daily constant-maturity Treasury series. (cnbc.com) The May 15 release showed the 10-year at 4.47% and the 30-year at 5.02%, both below the intraday market levels cited by CNBC on May 18. The gap reflects the difference between end-of-day official series and live trading levels during a volatile session. (cmegroup.com) CNBC’s live quote page also flagged the 10-year Treasury as at a new 52-week high on May 18. The page listed the instrument as US10Y:Tradeweb and showed the benchmark yield trading above Friday’s close before the U.S. cash session was fully underway. ### What should investors watch next? June 16-17 is the date of the Federal Open Market Committee’s next scheduled meeting, according to the Federal Reserve’s calendar, and Chair Kevin Warsh is due to hold a press conference on June 17. (federalreserve.gov) CME says FedWatch probabilities are derived from futures pricing, making that tool one place investors will watch as Treasury yields and inflation expectations shift between now and the meeting. (cnbc.com) (federalreserve.gov)